摘要翻译:
尽管最近的研究表明,风能和太阳能占80%以上的电力系统可以负担得起,但经济学家对市场一体化提出了担忧。可变可再生能源的相关发电压低了市场价格,这可能导致风能和太阳能蚕食自己的收入,并阻止它们从市场上支付成本。这种拆分似乎限制了风能和太阳能的整合,从而与那些表明高份额成本效益的研究相矛盾。在这里,我们从理论和模拟例子来说明市场激励是如何与可再生电力系统的价格、收入和成本相互作用的。在最近的一些文献中看到的平均收入的下降是由于一种隐含的政策假设,即技术是被迫进入系统的,无论是补贴还是配额。无论补贴技术是否可变,这种下降在数学上是有保证的。相反,如果驱动政策是二氧化碳上限或税收,风能和太阳能股可以在不蚕食自身市场收入的情况下上涨,即使风能和太阳能的渗透率超过80%。市场价值对政策制度的强烈依赖意味着需要谨慎使用市场价值作为市场一体化的衡量标准。市场价值下降不一定是整合问题的迹象,而是政策选择的结果。
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英文标题:
《Decreasing market value of variable renewables can be avoided by policy
action》
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作者:
T. Brown, L. Reichenberg
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最新提交年份:
2021
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述:General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类:Mathematics 数学
二级分类:Optimization and Control 优化与控制
分类描述:Operations research, linear programming, control theory, systems theory, optimal control, game theory
运筹学,线性规划,控制论,系统论,最优控制,博弈论
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要:
Although recent studies have shown that electricity systems with shares of wind and solar above 80% can be affordable, economists have raised concerns about market integration. Correlated generation from variable renewable sources depresses market prices, which can cause wind and solar to cannibalise their own revenues and prevent them from covering their costs from the market. This cannibalisation appears to set limits on the integration of wind and solar, and thus to contradict studies that show that high shares are cost effective. Here we show from theory and with simulation examples how market incentives interact with prices, revenue and costs for renewable electricity systems. The decline in average revenue seen in some recent literature is due to an implicit policy assumption that technologies are forced into the system, whether it be with subsidies or quotas. This decline is mathematically guaranteed regardless of whether the subsidised technology is variable or not. If instead the driving policy is a carbon dioxide cap or tax, wind and solar shares can rise without cannibalising their own market revenue, even at penetrations of wind and solar above 80%. The strong dependence of market value on the policy regime means that market value needs to be used with caution as a measure of market integration. Declining market value is not necessarily a sign of integration problems, but rather a result of policy choices.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2002.05209