摘要翻译：
12月16日，知名社交游戏开发公司Zynga上市。这一事件是在社交网络公司最近的其他IPO之后发生的，比如Groupon、Linkedin或Pandora。Zynga上市时的估值接近70亿美元，成为自谷歌以来最大的网络IPO。最近人们对社交网络公司，尤其是Zynga的热情引发了一个问题，即它们是否被高估了。所有这些IPO的共同点是，关于它们估值的大量估计一直在流传，但没有任何关于获得这些数字所用方法或假设的细节。为了使辩论更有实质内容，我们提议采取两级办法。首先，我们在分析Zynga主要游戏的个体动态的基础上，引入了一个新的模型来预测Zynga的全球用户群。接下来，我们使用logistic增长函数对每个用户的收入进行建模，这是竞争中增长的标准模型。这导致Zynga的估值采用三种不同的情况（基础一、乐观和非常乐观）：基础情况下41.7亿美元，高增长情况下51.6亿美元，极端增长情况下70.2亿美元。因此，只有不太可能的极端增长情景才有可能证明Zynga今天66亿美元的估值是合理的。这表明Zynga的IPO定价过高。
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英文标题：
《Valuation of Zynga》
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作者：
Zal\'an Forr\'o, Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
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最新提交年份：
2011
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  On December 16, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event is following other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon, Linkedin or Pandora to cite a few. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga has become the biggest web IPO since Google. This recent enthusiasm for social networking companies, and in particular Zynga, brings up the question whether or not they are overvalued. The common denominator of all these IPOs is that a lot of estimates about their valuation have been circulating, without any specifics given about the methodology or assumptions used to obtain those numbers. To bring more substance to the debate, we propose a two-tiered approach. First, we introduce a new model to forecast the global user base of Zynga, based on the analysis of the individual dynamics of its major games. Next, we model the revenues per user using a logistic growth function, a standard model for growth in competition. This leads to bracket the valuation of Zynga using three different scenarios (base one, optimistic and very optimistic): 4.17 billion USD in the base case, 5.16 billion in the high growth and 7.02 billion in the extreme growth scenario respectively. Thus, only the unlikely extreme growth scenario could potentially justify today's 6.6 billion USD valuation of Zynga. This suggests that Zynga at its IPO has been overpriced.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6024