摘要翻译：
2011年12月16日，著名社交游戏开发公司Zynga上市。这一事件是在社交网络公司的世界中最近其他IPO之后发生的，如Groupon或Linkedin等。Zynga上市时的估值接近70亿美元，成为自谷歌以来最大的网络IPO之一。最近对社交网络公司的热情引发了一个问题，即它们是否被高估了。事实上，Zynga在IPO后的几个月里表现出了显著的变化，其市值从56亿美元上升到102亿美元，暗示了市场可能存在非理性行为。为了给这场辩论带来实质内容，我们提出了一种计算Zynga内在价值的两层方法。首先，我们引入了一个新的模型来预测其用户基础，基于个人动态的主要游戏。接下来，我们使用logistic函数对每个用户的收入进行建模，这是竞争中增长的标准模型。这使得我们可以使用三种不同的情况来划分Zynga的估值：在基本情况下分别为3.4、4.0和48亿美元，在高增长和极端增长情况下分别为3.4、4.0和48亿美元。这表明Zynga自IPO以来的定价一直过高。最后，我们提出了一个投资策略（日期为2012年4月19日，在arXive上），这是基于我们对Zynga泡沫的诊断，以及这种羊群/泡沫情绪如何与即将到来的两个重要事件（2012年4月26日左右公布季度财务业绩，然后在2012年4月30日左右结束第一个锁定期）一起发挥作用。从长期来看，我们的分析表明，Zynga的价格应该会大幅下降。这篇论文的结尾是2012年5月24日，也就是付印前的一篇尸检分析，表明我们已经成功预测了Zynga的下滑趋势。自2012年4月27日以来，Zynga下跌了25%。
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英文标题：
《When games meet reality: is Zynga overvalued?》
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作者：
Zal\'an Forr\'o, Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  On December 16th, 2011, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event followed other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon or Linkedin among others. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga became one of the biggest web IPOs since Google. This recent enthusiasm for social networking companies raises the question whether they are overvalued. Indeed, during the few months since its IPO, Zynga showed significant variability, its market capitalization going from 5.6 to 10.2 billion USD, hinting at a possible irrational behavior from the market. To bring substance to the debate, we propose a two-tiered approach to compute the intrinsic value of Zynga. First, we introduce a new model to forecast its user base, based on the individual dynamics of its major games. Next, we model the revenues per user using a logistic function, a standard model for growth in competition. This allows us to bracket the valuation of Zynga using three different scenarios: 3.4, 4.0 and 4.8 billion USD in the base case, high growth and extreme growth scenario respectively. This suggests that Zynga has been overpriced ever since its IPO. Finally, we propose an investment strategy (dated April 19th, 2012 on the arXive), which is based on our diagnostic of a bubble for Zynga and how this herding / bubbly sentiment can be expected to play together with two important coming events (the quarterly financial result announcement around April 26th, 2012 followed by the end of a first lock-up period around April 30th, 2012). On the long term, our analysis indicates that Zynga's price should decrease significantly. The paper ends with a post-mortem analysis added on May 24th, 2012, just before going to press, showing that we have successfully predicted the downward trend of Zynga. Since April 27th, 2012, Zynga dropped 25%.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1204.0350