摘要翻译：
这篇文章介绍了第一个统计意义的研究结果的原因成本上升在运输基础设施项目。这项研究是基于258个铁路、桥梁、隧道和道路项目的样本，价值美国900亿美元。重点是成本上升对（1）项目实施阶段长度，(2)项目规模和（3）项目所有权类型的依赖。首先，具有很高统计意义的是，成本上升强烈依赖于实施阶段的长度。政策影响是明确的：决策者和规划者应高度关注拖延和漫长的执行阶段，因为它们转化为成本大幅上升的风险。其次，研究发现，随着时间的推移，项目规模越来越大，对于桥梁和隧道来说，较大的项目成本上升的百分比更大。最后，通过对三种所有制----私营、国有企业和其他公有制----的成本上升进行比较，发现人们经常认为公有制是有问题的，而私有制能有效地抑制成本上升的说法是过于简单化的。问责制的类型似乎比所有权的类型对成本上升更重要。
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英文标题：
《What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?"》
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作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and S{\o}ren L. Buhl
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on (1) length of project implementation phase, (2) size of project and (3) type of project ownership. First, it is found with very high statistical significance that cost escalation is strongly dependent on length of implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: Decision makers and planners should be highly concerned about delays and long implementation phases because they translate into risks of substantial cost escalations. Second, it is found that projects have grown larger over time and that for bridges and tunnels larger projects have larger percentage cost escalations. Finally, by comparing cost escalation for three types of project ownership--private, state-owned enterprise and other public ownership--it is shown that the oft-seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. Type of accountability appears to matter more to cost escalation than type of ownership.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.4476