摘要翻译：
挑战理论(CT)是一种新的风险决策方法，它与预期效用有很大的不同，它是建立在心理学而不是经济学假设的基础上的。这篇论文表明，纯粹的认知-心理学范式在风险下的决策可以产生出色的预测，与那些仍然依附于传统经济结构和假设的更复杂的经济或心理学模型所获得的预测相媲美。该研究提出了一个预测二元风险问题中选择的流行程度的新模型。基于CT的回归模型对126名受访者收集的数据进行了检验，这些受访者表示了他们对44个选择问题的偏好。结果支持CT的中心假设，在每个二元风险问题的挑战指数(CI)与该问题中观察到的大胆前景的受欢迎程度之间有很强的关联（收益和损失分别为r=-0.92和r=-0.93)。CT视角作为一种新范式的新颖之处在于它由前景理论提出的描述选择行为（确定性效应、反射效应、小概率过重和损失厌恶）的心理效应的简单、单指标(CI)表示。
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英文标题：
《Risk as Challenge: A Dual System Stochastic Model for Binary Choice
  Behavior》
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作者：
Samuel Shye and Ido Haber
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最新提交年份：
2019
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  Challenge Theory (CT), a new approach to decision under risk departs significantly from expected utility, and is based on firmly psychological, rather than economic, assumptions. The paper demonstrates that a purely cognitive-psychological paradigm for decision under risk can yield excellent predictions, comparable to those attained by more complex economic or psychological models that remain attached to conventional economic constructs and assumptions. The study presents a new model for predicting the popularity of choices made in binary risk problems. A CT-based regression model is tested on data gathered from 126 respondents who indicated their preferences with respect to 44 choice problems. Results support CT's central hypothesis, strongly associating between the Challenge Index (CI) attributable to every binary risk problem, and the observed popularity of the bold prospect in that problem (with r=-0.92 and r=-0.93 for gains and for losses, respectively). The novelty of the CT perspective as a new paradigm is illuminated by its simple, single-index (CI) representation of psychological effects proposed by Prospect Theory for describing choice behavior (certainty effect, reflection effect, overweighting small probabilities and loss aversion).
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.04487