摘要翻译：
一个独立的中央银行降低一个国家的通货膨胀的概念是一个有争议的假设。迄今为止，还不可能令人满意地回答这个问题，因为产生这些数据的复杂宏观经济结构尚未充分纳入统计分析。我们建立了一个因果模型，总结了通货膨胀的经济过程。基于这个因果模型和最近的数据，我们讨论和识别了可以识别和估计中央银行独立性对通货膨胀影响的假设。给定这些假设和替代假设，我们使用现代双鲁棒效应估计器，即纵向目标最大似然估计器来估计这种效应。估计程序结合了机器学习算法，并为解决复杂的纵向宏观经济数据相关的挑战而量身定做。我们没有找到强有力的支持假设，有一个独立的中央银行在很长一段时间内必然降低通货膨胀。仿真研究评估了所提出的方法在复杂环境中违反某些假设时的敏感性，并强调了使用适当的学习算法进行估计的重要性。
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英文标题：
《Estimating the Effect of Central Bank Independence on Inflation Using
  Longitudinal Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation》
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作者：
Philipp F.M. Baumann, Michael Schomaker, Enzo Rossi
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
  The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to the data has not been adequately incorporated into statistical analyses. We develop a causal model that summarizes the economic process of inflation. Based on this causal model and recent data, we discuss and identify the assumptions under which the effect of central bank independence on inflation can be identified and estimated. Given these and alternative assumptions, we estimate this effect using modern doubly robust effect estimators, i.e., longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimators. The estimation procedure incorporates machine learning algorithms and is tailored to address the challenges associated with complex longitudinal macroeconomic data. We do not find strong support for the hypothesis that having an independent central bank for a long period of time necessarily lowers inflation. Simulation studies evaluate the sensitivity of the proposed methods in complex settings when certain assumptions are violated and highlight the importance of working with appropriate learning algorithms for estimation.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.02208