摘要翻译：
阿尔伯丁裂谷地区面临着人口的快速增长，同时也是生物多样性的热点。利用卫星衍生的连续森林覆盖变化数据，我们研究了国家社会经济、人口和农业生产数据，以及当地人口和地理变量，以评估本世纪头十年期间驱动保护区外当地森林覆盖显著损失和增加的多级力量。由于驱动森林覆盖损失和收益的过程预计是不同的，我们构建了每个方向的变化模型。虽然森林覆盖的变化因国家而异，但国家一级的人口变化是所有国家森林损失率的最大驱动因素，人口翻一番预计将造成2.06%的年森林覆盖损失，而茶叶产量翻一番预计将造成1.90%的年森林覆盖损失。森林复盖率与当地主要作物木薯产量的增加呈正相关，但与当地人口密度和肉类产量呈负相关，表明生产驱动因素在多个层面上减轻了重新造林。我们发现，随着离保护区距离的增加，森林覆盖损失率略有下降，但显著下降，支持了保护区附近景观变化率较高的研究。虽然当地人口密度降低了森林覆盖增加的速度，但覆盖减少也与当地人口密度降低有关，这是一个明显的悖论，但与更大规模的力量超过当地毁林驱动因素的研究结果一致。这意味着国家和国际规模的人口和市场力量是变化的关键驱动因素，使人们对这一生物多样性热点地区森林保护政策的必要规模提出了质疑。
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英文标题：
《Population pressure and global markets drive a decade of forest cover
  change in Africa's Albertine Rift》
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作者：
Sadie J. Ryan, Michael Palace, Joel Hartter, Jeremy E. Diem, Colin A.
  Chapman, Jane Southworth
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最新提交年份：
2015
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  The Albertine Rift region faces rapid human population growth, while being a biodiversity hotspot. Using satellite-derived continuous forest cover change data, we examined national socioeconomic, demographic, and agricultural production data, and local demographic and geographic variables to assess multilevel forces driving significant local forest cover loss and gain outside protected areas during the first decade of this century. Because the processes that drive forest cover loss and gain are expected to be different, we constructed models of change in each direction. Although forest cover change varied by country, national level population change was the strongest driver of forest loss rate for all countries, with a population doubling predicted to cause 2.06 percent annual cover loss, while doubling tea production was predicted to cause 1.90 percent. The rate of forest cover gain was associated positively with increased production of the local staple crop cassava, but negatively with local population density and meat production, suggesting production drivers at multiple levels mitigate reforestation. We found a small, but significant, decrease of forest cover loss rate with increasing distance from protected areas, supporting studies suggesting higher rates of landscape change near protected areas. While local population density mitigated the rate of forest cover gain, cover loss also correlated to lower local population density, an apparent paradox, but consistent with findings that larger scale forces outweigh local drivers of deforestation. This implicates demographic and market forces at national and international scales as critical drivers of change, calling into question the necessary scale of forest protection policy in this biodiversity hotspot.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.7280