摘要翻译：
提出并发展了一种贝叶斯生存分析方法，用于分析击球手在测试或一级板球比赛中的得分序列。特别是，由于击球手在折痕处是新手时击球更困难，我们期望存在这样一种效应，即得分分布在零附近的概率比几何分布更大。Metropoly-Hastings算法被发现在估计建议的参数方面是有效的，允许我们准确地量化这种早局影响有多大，以及击球手需要在折痕处呆多长时间才能“吸引他们的目光”。将这个模型应用于几名现代球员表明，击球手在第一次到达折痕时通常只发挥出他们潜在能力的一半左右，并且惊人地迅速地吸引他们的目光。此外，一些球员比其他球员更“健壮”（有较小的早局影响），这可能会对选择政策产生影响。
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英文标题：
《Getting Your Eye In: A Bayesian Analysis of Early Dismissals in Cricket》
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作者：
Brendon J. Brewer
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：

一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability        数据分析、统计与概率
分类描述：Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.
物理数据分析的方法、软硬件：数据处理与存储；测量方法；统计和数学方面，如参数化和不确定性。
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英文摘要：
  A Bayesian Survival Analysis method is motivated and developed for analysing sequences of scores made by a batsman in test or first class cricket. In particular, we expect the presence of an effect whereby the distribution of scores has more probability near zero than a geometric distribution, due to the fact that batting is more difficult when the batsman is new at the crease. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is found to be efficient at estimating the proposed parameters, allowing us to quantify exactly how large this early-innings effect is, and how long a batsman needs to be at the crease in order to ``get their eye in''. Applying this model to several modern players shows that a batsman is typically only playing at about half of their potential ability when they first arrive at the crease, and gets their eye in surprisingly quickly. Additionally, some players are more ``robust'' (have a smaller early-innings effect) than others, which may have implications for selection policy.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/801.4408