摘要翻译：
新冠肺炎病例在全球范围内急剧增加。因此，对未来几天病例数量的可靠预测至关重要。我们提出了一种简单的统计方法，用于对新冠肺炎病例和死亡人数进行短期实时预测，这些病例是在后来者国家（即在其他国家之后一段时间才开始出现的国家）的病例。特别是，我们提出了一个带有误差修正机制的惩罚(LASSO)回归，以构建前几天处于类似流行病阶段的其他国家的后来者模型。通过跟踪这些国家的病例数和死亡数，我们通过自适应滚动窗口方案预测后来者的病例数和死亡数。我们将这一方法应用于巴西，并表明（到目前为止）它的表现非常好。这些预测的目的是促进对卫生系统能力的更好的短期管理。
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英文标题：
《Short-Term Covid-19 Forecast for Latecomers》
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作者：
Marcelo Medeiros, Alexandre Street, Davi Vallad\~ao, Gabriel
  Vasconcelos, Eduardo Zilberman
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Methodology        方法论
分类描述：Design, Surveys, Model Selection, Multiple Testing, Multivariate Methods, Signal and Image Processing, Time Series, Smoothing, Spatial Statistics, Survival Analysis, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods
设计，调查，模型选择，多重检验，多元方法，信号和图像处理，时间序列，平滑，空间统计，生存分析，非参数和半参数方法
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英文摘要：
  The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing dramatically worldwide. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for short-term real-time forecasting of the number of Covid-19 cases and fatalities in countries that are latecomers -- i.e., countries where cases of the disease started to appear some time after others. In particular, we propose a penalized (LASSO) regression with an error correction mechanism to construct a model of a latecomer in terms of the other countries that were at a similar stage of the pandemic some days before. By tracking the number of cases and deaths in those countries, we forecast through an adaptive rolling-window scheme the number of cases and deaths in the latecomer. We apply this methodology to Brazil, and show that (so far) it has been performing very well. These forecasts aim to foster a better short-run management of the health system capacity.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07977