摘要翻译：
Dan Lovallo和Daniel Kahneman在《成功的妄想：乐观如何破坏高管的决策》(HBR 7月，2003年）中明确指出了规划谬误的原因和治疗方法，这一点值得称赞。他们对过度乐观、锚定、竞争对手忽视和预测中的外部观点的看法对高管和预测者非常有用。然而，Lovallo和Kahneman低估了预测偏差的一个来源--故意“烹饪”预测来启动风险。
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英文标题：
《Delusions of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman》
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作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman must be commended for their clear identification of causes and cures to the planning fallacy in "Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions" (HBR July 2003). Their look at overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect, and the outside view in forecasting is highly useful to executives and forecasters. However, Lovallo and Kahneman underrate one source of bias in forecasting - the deliberate "cooking" of forecasts to get ventures started.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1305.0741