摘要翻译：
经合组织最大国家的人均实际国内生产总值增长率由两个部分组成：稳步下降的趋势和与某些特定年龄人口变化有关的波动。增长率的长期趋势是用一个常数分子的实际人均GDP的反函数来模拟的。这个分子相当于人均实际GDP的一个不变的年增量。对于最发达的经济体，1950年至2007年期间的国内生产总值估计数在年度增量中显示出非常微弱和在统计上微不足道的线性趋势（正负）。在相关平均增量附近的波动具有实际正态分布的特征。对许多国家来说，存在自1870年以来实际国内生产总值的历史估计。这些估计数与2008年至2011年间的一些新估计数一起延长了我们分析的时间跨度。在1940年至1950年之间的相应时间序列中出现了严重的结构突变，线性回归的斜率增加了4.0倍（瑞士）至22.1倍（西班牙）。因此，1940年以前和1950年以后的本地生产总值估计数已分别分析。原始研究的所有发现都被新获得的数据所证实。最重要的是，人均实际GDP年增量的回归线的所有斜率（除了1950年后的澳大利亚）都很小，在统计上不显著，即不能拒绝零斜率和常数增量的无效假设。因此，自1870年以来，人均实际GDP的增长是线性的，在1940年至1950年之间出现了一个斜率突变。
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英文标题：
《Real GDP per capita since 1870》
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作者：
Ivan Kitov, Oleg Kitov
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. This numerator is equivalent to a constant annual increment of real GDP per capita. For the most advanced economies, the GDP estimates between 1950 and 2007 have shown very weak and statistically insignificant linear trends (both positive and negative) in the annual increment. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are characterized by practically normal distribution. For many countries, there exist historical estimates of real GDP since 1870. These estimates extend the time span of our analysis together with a few new estimates from 2008 to 2011. There are severe structural breaks in the corresponding time series between 1940 and 1950, with the slope of linear regression increasing by a factor of 4.0 (Switzerland) to 22.1 (Spain). Therefore, the GDP estimates before 1940 and after 1950 have been analysed separately. All findings of the original study are validated by the newly available data. The most important is that all slopes (except that for Australia after 1950) of the regression lines obtained for the annual increments of real GDP per capita are small and statistically insignificant, i.e. one cannot reject the null hypothesis of a zero slope and thus constant increment. Hence the growth in real GDP per capita is a linear one since 1870 with a break in slope between 1940 and 1950.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.5671