英文标题：
《The Italian Crisis and Producer Households Debt: a Source of Stability?
  A Reproducible Research》
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作者：
Stefano Olgiati, Gilberto Bronzini, Alessandro Danovi
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
  The European Credit Research Institute Research Report 2013 identifies Households debt \"rapid increase and abrupt retrenchment\" among the causes of macroeconomic instability in the European Union after 2008. In our research: i) we accessed the Bank of Italy Online Statistical Database on Customers and Risk for Producer Households and Non-Financial Corporations with R Sweave open access statistical software, which makes our analysis freely reproducible by other researchers; ii) we subset the European System of Accounts sector Households into the Bank of Italy sub-sectors Households and Producer Households, which are market producing entities limited to informal partnerships, de facto companies and sole proprietorships with up to five employees and iii) we tested the hypothesis of \"rapid increase and abrupt retrenchment\" of debt for this subset in Italy for the period 1996-2013. We found that PH debt (bad debt) has been more stable with a lower Variation Coefficient of 10.3% (14.2%) versus 13.2% (20.1%) in NFC. We also found that the time series of the ratio of debt granted to NFC (numerator) versus PH (denominator) is best described (Multiple Squared 0.95) by the concavity of the 5th degree coefficient (slope -1.22; 95% CI -1.52 - -0.91) of a 5th order polynomial linear regression and by the convexity of the 2nd degree coefficient (slope 4.26; 95% CI 2.53 - 5.99) for bad debt (Multiple R Squared 0.47), with this concavity of debt and convexity of bad debt beginning with the Italian crisis in the second trimester of 2008. We reject the hypothesis (p < 0.01) of \"rapid increase and abrupt retrenchment\" of debt for the subset Producer Households during the Italian Crisis. We generate the hypothesis that this subset could represent a prospective source of stability relative to Non-Financial Corporation.
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中文摘要：
欧洲信贷研究所（European Credit Research Institute）2013年研究报告将家庭债务“快速增长和突然紧缩”列为2008年后欧盟宏观经济不稳定的原因之一。在我们的研究中：i）我们使用R Swave开放存取统计软件访问了意大利银行关于生产者家庭和非金融公司客户和风险的在线统计数据库，这使得我们的分析可以由其他研究人员自由复制；ii）我们将欧洲账户体系部门的住户分为意大利银行子部门住户和生产者住户，这两个部门是仅限于非正式合伙企业的市场生产实体，事实上的公司和拥有最多五名员工的独资企业，以及iii）我们测试了1996-2013年期间意大利这一子集债务“快速增长和突然缩减”的假设。我们发现，在NFC中，PH债务（坏账）更稳定，变异系数较低，分别为10.3%（14.2%）和13.2%（20.1%）。我们还发现，通过五阶多项式线性回归的第五阶系数（斜率-1.22；95%置信区间-1.52--0.91）的凹性和坏账的第二阶系数（斜率4.26；95%置信区间2.53--5.99）的凸性，可以最好地描述授予NFC（分子）与PH（分母）的债务比率的时间序列（平方倍数0.95），从2008年第二季度的意大利危机开始，债务呈凹形，坏账呈凸形。我们拒绝接受意大利危机期间次级生产者家庭债务“快速增加和突然削减”的假设（p<0.01）。我们提出了这样一个假设，即相对于非金融公司，这个子集可能代表一个潜在的稳定来源。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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