英文标题：
《Portfolio Allocation for Sellers in Online Advertising》
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作者：
Ragavendran Gopalakrishnan, Eric Bax, Krishna Prasad Chitrapura,
  Sachin Garg
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
  In markets for online advertising, some advertisers pay only when users respond to ads. So publishers estimate ad response rates and multiply by advertiser bids to estimate expected revenue for showing ads. Since these estimates may be inaccurate, the publisher risks not selecting the ad for each ad call that would maximize revenue. The variance of revenue can be decomposed into two components -- variance due to `uncertainty\' because the true response rate is unknown, and variance due to `randomness\' because realized response statistics fluctuate around the true response rate. Over a sequence of many ad calls, the variance due to randomness nearly vanishes due to the law of large numbers. However, the variance due to uncertainty doesn\'t diminish.   We introduce a technique for ad selection that augments existing estimation and explore-exploit methods. The technique uses methods from portfolio optimization to produce a distribution over ads rather than selecting the single ad that maximizes estimated expected revenue. Over a sequence of similar ad calls, ads are selected according to the distribution. This approach decreases the effects of uncertainty and increases revenue.
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中文摘要：
在在线广告市场中，一些广告商只在用户回复广告时支付费用。因此，出版商估计广告回复率，并乘以广告商出价，以估计显示广告的预期收入。由于这些估计可能不准确，出版商有可能没有为每个广告呼叫选择广告，从而实现收入最大化。收入的差异可以分解为两个组成部分——由于真实响应率未知而导致的“不确定性”差异，以及由于实现响应统计数据围绕真实响应率波动而导致的“随机性”差异。在一系列的广告呼叫中，由于大数定律，随机性引起的方差几乎消失。然而，不确定性导致的差异并没有减少。我们介绍了一种广告选择技术，该技术增强了现有的估计，并探索了利用方法。该技术使用投资组合优化的方法，在广告上生成一个分布，而不是选择一个能最大化估计预期收入的广告。在一系列类似的广告通话中，广告是根据分布情况选择的。这种方法减少了不确定性的影响，增加了收入。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Computer Science and Game Theory        计算机科学与博弈论
分类描述：Covers all theoretical and applied aspects at the intersection of computer science and game theory, including work in mechanism design, learning in games (which may overlap with Learning), foundations of agent modeling in games (which may overlap with Multiagent systems), coordination, specification and formal methods for non-cooperative computational environments. The area also deals with applications of game theory to areas such as electronic commerce.
涵盖计算机科学和博弈论交叉的所有理论和应用方面，包括机制设计的工作，游戏中的学习（可能与学习重叠），游戏中的agent建模的基础（可能与多agent系统重叠），非合作计算环境的协调、规范和形式化方法。该领域还涉及博弈论在电子商务等领域的应用。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Portfolio Management        项目组合管理
分类描述：Security selection and optimization, capital allocation, investment strategies and performance measurement
证券选择与优化、资本配置、投资策略与绩效评价
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Risk Management        风险管理
分类描述：Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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