英文标题:
《A network analysis of the global energy market: an insight on the
entanglement between crude oil and the world economy》
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作者:
Franco Ruzzenenti, Francesco Picciolo, Andreas Papandreou
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最新提交年份:
2015
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英文摘要:
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper addresses the role of oil compared to the other three main energy commodities -coal, gas and electricity, in shaping the international trading network (ITW or WTW, world trade web) in the light of network theory. It initially surveys briefly the literature on the correlation between oil prices with economic growth and compares the concepts of time correlation with the concept of spatial correlation brought about by network theory. It outlines the conceptual framework underpinning the network measures adopted in the analysis and results are presented. Three measures are taken into account: the ratio of mutual exchanges in the network (reciprocity); the role of distances in determining trades (spatial filling); and the spatial correlation of energy commodities with the whole trade network and with four trading categories: food, capital goods, intermediate goods and consumption goods. The analysis deliver five main results:1) the the energy commodities network was structurally stable amid dramatic growth during the decade considered; 2) that oil is the most correlated energy commodity to the world trade web; 3) that oil is the most pervasive network, though coal is the less affected by distances; 4) that oil has a remarkably high level of internal reciprocity and external overlapping 5) that the reciprocity of the trade network is negative correlated in time with the price of oil.
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中文摘要:
通往低碳经济道路上的一个主要障碍是目前发达经济体与石油的纠缠。这种紧密关系反映在大多数经济指标与油价之间的相关性上。本文根据网络理论探讨了石油与其他三种主要能源商品——煤炭、天然气和电力相比,在形成国际贸易网络(ITW或WTW,世界贸易网)方面的作用。本文首先简要回顾了有关石油价格与经济增长之间相关性的文献,并对网络理论提出的时间相关性和空间相关性的概念进行了比较。它概述了支持分析中所采用的网络措施的概念框架,并给出了结果。考虑了三个指标:网络中相互交换的比例(互惠);距离在决定行业中的作用(空间填充);以及能源商品与整个贸易网络和四个贸易类别(食品、资本产品、中间产品和消费品)的空间相关性。该分析得出了五个主要结果:1)在所考虑的十年中,能源商品网络在急剧增长的情况下结构稳定;2) 石油是与世界贸易网最相关的能源商品;3) 石油是最普遍的网络,尽管煤炭受距离的影响较小;4) 石油具有非常高的内部互惠和外部重叠水平,贸易网络的互惠在时间上与石油价格呈负相关。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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