英文标题：
《The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth》
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作者：
Ron W Nielsen
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
  Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant value. The most likely prediction is that the world economic growth will continue to increase exponentially and that it will become unsustainable possibly even during the current century. A more optimistic but less realistic prediction is based on the assumption that the growth rate will start to decrease linearly. In this case, the world economic growth is predicted to reach a maximum, if the growth rate is going to decrease linearly with time, or to follow a logistic trajectory, if the growth rate is going to decrease linearly with the size of the world GDP.
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中文摘要：
分析了世界国内生产总值（GDP）的增长率，以确定未来经济增长的可能途径。该分析基于世界银行的最新数据，它揭示了1960年至2014年之间的增长率正沿着一条接近常数的轨迹运行。最有可能的预测是，世界经济增长将继续呈指数级增长，甚至在本世纪也可能变得不可持续。一个更乐观但不太现实的预测是基于增长率将开始线性下降的假设。在这种情况下，如果增长率将随时间线性下降，或者如果增长率将随世界GDP规模线性下降，则预计世界经济增长将达到最大值。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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