英文标题：
《The Action Principle in Market Mechanics》
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作者：
J. T. Manhire
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最新提交年份：
2017
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英文摘要：
  This paper explores the possibility that asset prices, especially those traded in large volume on public exchanges, might comply with specific physical laws of motion and probability. The paper first examines the basic dynamics of asset price displacement and finds one can model this dynamic as a harmonic oscillator at local \"slices\" of elapsed time. Based on this finding, the paper theorizes that price displacements are constrained, meaning they have extreme values beyond which they cannot go when measured over a large number of sequential periods. By assuming price displacements are also subject to the principle of stationary action, the paper explores a method for measuring specific probabilities of future price displacements based on prior historical data. Testing this theory with two prevalent stock indices suggests it can make accurate forecasts as to constraints on extreme price movements during market \"crashes\" and probabilities of specific price displacements at other times.
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中文摘要：
本文探讨了资产价格，尤其是在公共交易所大量交易的资产价格，可能符合特定的运动和概率物理定律。本文首先研究了资产价格位移的基本动力学，发现可以将这种动力学建模为经过时间的局部“切片”上的谐振子。基于这一发现，本文提出了价格位移受到约束的理论，这意味着它们具有极值，当在大量连续周期内进行测量时，它们无法超过极值。通过假设价格位移也服从平稳作用原理，本文探索了一种基于先前历史数据测量未来价格位移特定概率的方法。用两种流行的股票指数检验这一理论表明，它可以准确预测市场“崩盘”期间极端价格变动的限制以及其他时间特定价格变动的可能性。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Mathematical Finance        数学金融学
分类描述：Mathematical and analytical methods of finance, including stochastic, probabilistic and functional analysis, algebraic, geometric and other methods
金融的数学和分析方法，包括随机、概率和泛函分析、代数、几何和其他方法
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