英文标题：
《Preliminary steps toward a universal economic dynamics for monetary and
  fiscal policy》
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作者：
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Jean Langlois-Meurinne, Mari Kawakatsu, Rodolfo Garcia
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最新提交年份：
2017
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英文摘要：
  We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamics is crucial to assessing the effects of policy, especially in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Here we lay out a program of research into monetary and economic dynamics and preliminary steps toward its execution. We use principles of response theory to derive implications for policy. We find that the current approach, which considers the overall money supply, is insufficient to regulate economic growth. While it can achieve some degree of control, optimizing growth also requires a fiscal policy balancing monetary injection between two dominant loop flows, the consumption and wages loop, and investment and returns loop. The balance arises from a composite of government tax, entitlement, subsidy policies, corporate policies, as well as monetary policy. We show empirically that a transition occurred in 1980 between two regimes--an oversupply to the consumption and wages loop, to an oversupply of the investment and returns loop. The imbalance is manifest in savings and borrowing by consumers and investors, and in inflation. The latter increased until 1980, and decreased subsequently, resulting in a zero rate largely unrelated to the financial crisis. Three recessions and the financial crisis are part of this dynamic. Optimizing growth now requires shifting the balance. Our analysis supports advocates of greater income and / or government support for the poor who use a larger fraction of income for consumption. This promotes investment due to growth in demand. Otherwise, investment opportunities are limited, capital remains uninvested, and does not contribute to growth.
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中文摘要：
我们使用一个通用的动态框架来考虑经济活动与干预（包括货币和财政政策）之间的关系。中央银行的政策是为经济增长而设计的，没有过度通货膨胀。然而，失业、投资、消费和通货膨胀是相互关联的。了解动态对于评估政策效果至关重要，尤其是在金融危机之后。在这里，我们提出了一个研究货币和经济动态的计划，以及执行该计划的初步步骤。我们使用反应理论的原则来推导政策含义。我们发现，目前考虑总体货币供应量的方法不足以调节经济增长。虽然它可以实现某种程度的控制，但优化增长还需要财政政策在两个主要循环流（消费和工资循环以及投资和回报循环）之间平衡货币注入。平衡来自政府税收、权利、补贴政策、公司政策以及货币政策的组合。我们的经验表明，1980年，两种制度之间发生了一种过渡——从供过于求到消费和工资循环，再到供过于求的投资和回报循环。这种不平衡表现在消费者和投资者的储蓄和借贷以及通货膨胀上。后者一直上升到1980年，随后下降，导致零利率基本上与金融危机无关。三次衰退和金融危机是这一动态的一部分。优化增长现在需要改变平衡。我们的分析支持提高收入的倡导者和/或政府支持将收入的大部分用于消费的穷人。这促进了需求增长带来的投资。否则，投资机会有限，资本仍然未被投资，对增长没有贡献。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Computers and Society        计算机与社会
分类描述：Covers impact of computers on society, computer ethics, information technology and public policy, legal aspects of computing, computers and education. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes K.0, K.2, K.3, K.4, K.5, and K.7.
涵盖计算机对社会的影响、计算机伦理、信息技术和公共政策、计算机的法律方面、计算机和教育。大致包括ACM学科类K.0、K.2、K.3、K.4、K.5和K.7中的材料。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems        自适应和自组织系统
分类描述：Adaptation, self-organizing systems, statistical physics, fluctuating systems, stochastic processes, interacting particle systems, machine learning
自适应，自组织系统，统计物理，波动系统，随机过程，相互作用粒子系统，机器学习
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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