英文标题：
《A common trajectory recapitulated by urban economies》
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作者：
Inho Hong, Morgan R. Frank, Iyad Rahwan, Woo-Sung Jung, Hyejin Youn
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
  Is there a general economic pathway recapitulated by individual cities over and over? Identifying such evolution structure, if any, would inform models for the assessment, maintenance, and forecasting of urban sustainability and economic success as a quantitative baseline. This premise seems to contradict the existing body of empirical evidences for path-dependent growth shaping the unique history of individual cities. And yet, recent empirical evidences and theoretical models have amounted to the universal patterns, mostly size-dependent, thereby expressing many of urban quantities as a set of simple scaling laws. Here, we provide a mathematical framework to integrate repeated cross-sectional data, each of which freezes in time dimension, into a frame of reference for longitudinal evolution of individual cities in time. Using data of over 100 millions employment in thousand business categories between 1998 and 2013, we decompose each city\'s evolution into a pre-factor and relative changes to eliminate national and global effects. In this way, we show the longitudinal dynamics of individual cities recapitulate the observed cross-sectional regularity. Larger cities are not only scaled-up versions of their smaller peers but also of their past. In addition, our model shows that both specialization and diversification are attributed to the distribution of industry\'s scaling exponents, resulting a critical population of 1.2 million at which a city makes an industrial transition into innovative economies.
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中文摘要：
各个城市是否有一条总的经济路径？确定这种演变结构（如有）将为城市可持续性和经济成功的评估、维护和预测模型提供信息，作为定量基线。这一前提似乎与现有的大量经验证据相矛盾，这些证据表明路径依赖型增长塑造了单个城市的独特历史。然而，最近的经验证据和理论模型已经形成了普遍的模式，主要取决于规模，从而将许多城市数量表示为一组简单的比例定律。在这里，我们提供了一个数学框架，将重复的横截面数据（每个数据在时间维度上冻结）集成到单个城市在时间上纵向演变的参考框架中。利用1998年至2013年间1000个商业类别中超过1亿人的就业数据，我们将每个城市的演变分解为一个前置因素和相对变化，以消除国家和全球影响。通过这种方式，我们展示了各个城市的纵向动态，再现了观察到的横截面规律。大城市不仅是小城市的放大版，也是过去的放大版。此外，我们的模型表明，专业化和多样化都归因于行业规模指数的分布，导致城市向创新型经济转型的关键人口为120万。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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