英文标题：
《Economic resilience from input-output susceptibility improves
  predictions of economic growth and recovery》
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作者：
Peter Klimek, Sebastian Poledna, Stefan Thurner
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最新提交年份：
2019
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英文摘要：
  Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks. Here we focus on resilience as a nonequilibrium property of networked production systems and develop a linear response theory for input-output economics. By calibrating the framework to data from 56 industrial sectors in 43 countries between 2000 and 2014, we find that the susceptibility of individual industrial sectors to economic shocks varies greatly across countries, sectors, and time. We show that susceptibility-based predictions that take sector- and country-specific recovery into account, outperform--by far--standard econometric growth-models. Our results are analytically rigorous, empirically testable, and flexible enough to address policy-relevant scenarios. We illustrate the latter by estimating the impact of recently imposed tariffs on US imports (steel and aluminum) on specific sectors across European countries.
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中文摘要：
现代宏观经济理论无法预测上一次大衰退，也无法预测其持续时间和复苏率。它们基于在衰退冲击期间不存在的供需平衡。在这里，我们将弹性作为网络化生产系统的一种非平衡特性，并发展了投入产出经济学的线性响应理论。通过使用2000年至2014年间43个国家56个工业部门的数据对框架进行校准，我们发现各个工业部门对经济冲击的敏感性因国家、部门和时间的不同而存在很大差异。我们表明，考虑到行业和国家具体复苏的敏感性预测，远远优于标准的计量经济增长模型。我们的结果在分析上是严格的，在经验上是可测试的，并且足够灵活，可以处理与政策相关的场景。我们通过估计最近对美国进口（钢和铝）征收的关税对欧洲国家特定部门的影响来说明后者。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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