英文标题：
《Confidence Collapse in a Multi-Household, Self-Reflexive DSGE Model》
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作者：
Federico Guglielmo Morelli and Michael Benzaquen and Marco Tarzia and
  Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
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最新提交年份：
2019
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英文摘要：
  We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises; high output with increased volatility and deep, short lived recessions; alternation of high and low output states where relatively mild drop in economic conditions can lead to a temporary confidence collapse and steep decline in economic activity. The crisis probability depends exponentially on the parameters of the model, which means that markets cannot efficiently price the associated risk premium. We conclude by stressing that within our framework, {\\it narratives} become an important monetary policy tool, that can help steering the economy back on track.
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中文摘要：
我们研究了一个多家庭DSGE模型，在该模型中，过去的总消费会影响单个家庭的信心，从而影响其消费倾向。我们发现，这种最小的设置非常丰富，并导致各种现实的产出动态：高产出，没有危机；高产出，波动加剧，衰退持续时间短；高产出和低产出状态的交替，经济状况相对温和的下降可能导致暂时的信心崩溃和经济活动的急剧下降。危机概率以指数形式取决于模型的参数，这意味着市场无法有效地为相关风险溢价定价。最后，我们强调，在我们的框架内，{\\it叙事}成为重要的货币政策工具，有助于引导经济回到正轨。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Theoretical Economics        理论经济学
分类描述：Includes theoretical contributions to Contract Theory, Decision Theory, Game Theory, General Equilibrium, Growth, Learning and Evolution, Macroeconomics, Market and Mechanism Design, and Social Choice.
包括对契约理论、决策理论、博弈论、一般均衡、增长、学习与进化、宏观经济学、市场与机制设计、社会选择的理论贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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