The economic data over the past few months have been extremely disappointing. The May employment report broadly followed this trend, although the details of the release were not as weak as the headlines suggest. In light of the recent negative data surprises and dismal employment news, we lowered our forecasts for 2011 to 3.1% from 3.4% on a Q4 over Q4 basis.
We expect the economic expansion to remain intact, but at a more modest pace than what we previously envisioned. Going forward, we believe the economy will benefit from accommodative monetary policy, as real interest rates are poised to probe even lower negative readings. Additionally, our expectation of lower energy costs combined with a potentially sizeable recovery in motor vehicle production should provide a powerful fillip to GDP growth in Q3.
美国新近报出的五月非农就业数据(+5.4万)只有市场预期的三分之一左右，失业率也意外上升。虽然随后报出的服务业ISM指数和工资增长幅度非常强劲，也未能扭转市场对美国经济的悲观情绪。
过去一两个月，美国的经济数据也都非常令市场失望。我们预计美国经济将继续保持扩张趋势，但步伐将会更为温和。展望未来，我们认为美国的实际利率将为负数，并有望进一步下降，经济将受益于宽松的货币政策。而从第三季度起，能源价格成本的降低以及汽车生产行业的复苏，将为第三季度的GDP增长提供强有力的支持。
我们对2011年美国GDP增长率的预测为3.1％