COVID-19的宏观经济影响：负供应冲击会导致需求短缺吗？

American Economic Review, 2022, vol. 112, issue 5

作者：Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub and Iván Werning摘要：受 COVID-19 大流行的影响，我们提出了凯恩斯供给冲击理论：冲击会减少经济部门的潜在产出，但会通过减少其他部门的需求，最终将总体活动推低至潜力之下。当部门之间的替代弹性相对较低、跨期替代弹性相对较高且市场不完整时，更可能出现凯恩斯供给冲击。财政政策可以显示较小的乘数，但可以提高财政转移的保险收益。企业退出和工作破坏会放大和传播冲击。（翻译：Google Translate）

Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?

Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub and Iván Werning

Abstract

Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smaller multiplier, but the insurance benefit of fiscal transfers can be enhanced. Firm exits and job destruction can amplify and propagate the shock.