JP摩根对最新全球经济数据的详细解读！2011年7月8日Global Data Watch对培养自己对全球经济数据的解读和感觉非常有帮助！共92页
Global Data Watch
Abrupt slide in US job gains challenges forecast that growth is rebounding China’s rate hike will be the last as expected 6% June inflation is the peak Headline inflation is sliding in sequential terms globally Next week: solid June retail sales from the US and China
The bends
Our forecast of a global growth rebound during the second half of 2011 rests on two judgements. The first is that the recent downshift is primarily related to temporary drags—notably a purchasing power squeeze caused by spiking commodity prices and the global repercussions of the Tohoku earthquake. Signs that these drags are fading from the scene are accumulating. Indeed, Japan’s V-shaped recovery is clearly under way and is lifting global industry into midyear (see “Tracking the global manufacturing roller coaster” in this GDW).
At the same time, commodity prices have moved lower and the sequential pace of global inflation is falling sharply. Developed world consumer prices stabilized in May after averaging
0.4%m/m sa gains during the first four months of the year. Releases from the US and Western Europe next week should show that developed world consumer prices fell last month. Even though the year-ago change in prices will rise in June, a substantial lift in real household incomes is now taking hold across the globe (see “Global inflation relief is here” in this GDW).
The second judgement is that private sector behavior bends rather than breaks in response to these drags. As the year began, global corporates implemented upbeat plans to hire, expand plant and equipment, and build inventories. It was this demand impulse that delivered above-trend global growth in 1Q11, despite slower consumer spending gains. As the squeeze on consumer purchasing power continued into this quarter and was magnified by a demand shock from the world’s third largest economy, adjustments to these plans were inevitable. The anticipated bending in behavior should persist for some months to come— particularly an inventory adjustment that remains in its early stages. However, we anticipate that firms will continue on an expansion path which is providing the key fuel for global growth.
Midyear indicators send mixed signals about business sector behavior and provide the main uncertainty hovering over the outlook. Our global capital shipments proxy was severely impacted by the Japanese shock but recovered modestly in April and May. At the same time, our global PMI employment composite has moved lower from its early year highs but remains above its average level over the previous expansion. Of greatest concern is the abrupt loss of momentum in US