You've just run the GAUSS startup file. It's called "startup" in your
GAUSS home directory. You may modify it to contain your own custom
commands or simply delete it.
To run an example program, enter the following at the command prompt:
run ols.e
?run D:\gausscd\lin\Maxseek.2s;
Order of autoregression for production index 1.0000000
Order of autoregression for stock return 1.0000000
Order of ARCH process 0.00000000
Number of primitive states 2.0000000
Number of lagged states that affect returns and growth rates 1.0000000
Number of state delays between returns and growth rates 1.0000000
First observation used for estimation is 5.0000000
with leverage effect
Distribution is Normal
==================================================
The matrix hpp is
Constant term in stock return regression 0.35000000
Autoregressive coefficients in stoch return regression 0.27145200
Initial variance not neeeded
Constant term in ARCH process 19.663118
(Transposed) matrix of transition probabilities
0.88730800 0.020626000
0.11269200 0.97937400
The state with no adjustment to ARCH process is state 1, with transition
probability 0.88730800
Vector of variance factors for states 2 through 2.0000000 0.088103000
Coefficient on negative lagged change for asymmetric effect 0.15921200
----------- Parameters in the production growth rate eqaution -----------
The mean of growth rate in state 1 through 2.0000000 -0.76164300 0.41672000
Autocoefficients on the production growth rate equation
0.23808100
Variance for the growth rate 0.48369000
Initial values: 0.35000000 0.27145200 13.108745 0.88730800 0.97937400 0.088103000 -0.15921200 -0.76164300 0.41672000 0.23808100 0.48369000
Initial value for negative log likelihood: 1259.9470
----------------- 2 STATE MODEL ----------------
================================================
--------- Parameters in the stock return and its volatility eqautions----------
Constant term in stock return regression 0.35614458
Autoregressive coefficients in stoch return regression 0.27145451
Initial variance not neeeded
Constant term in ARCH process 19.663116
(Transposed) matrix of transition probabilities
0.88728326 0.020626542
0.11271674 0.97937346
The state with no adjustment to ARCH process is state 1, with transition
probability 0.88728326
Vector of variance factors for states 2 through 2.0000000 0.088098464
Coefficient on negative lagged change for asymmetric effect 0.15922159
----------- Parameters in the production growth rate eqaution -----------
The mean of growth rate in state 1 through 2.0000000 -0.76170575 0.41670847
Autocoefficients on the production growth rate equation
0.23808761
Variance for the growth rate 0.48368836
Ergodic probs for full state vector:
0.12178110 0.015470559 0.00035964178 0.017076232 0.015470559 0.0019653148 0.017076232 0.81080037
Ergodic probs for primitive states:
0.15468753 0.84531247
Log likelihood:
-1259.9462
Number of observations below .025 level:
8.0000
Number of observations above .975 level:
13.0000
Loss functions of forecasting the growth rate
0.55073309 0.54361925
0.65169570 0.58712564
Loss functions of forecasting the stock volatility
486.07139 12.868865
545.16711 10.878132
0.00000000 0.00000000 0.26244187 0.00000000 0.26772678 0.27077734 2.3769699 0.12683896 3.0859681
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