7月21日，共60页，分两份

目录：

A modest rather than sharp NPL cycle in 2011E/12E; trading ranges set; be selective 2
Some cyclical NPLs due to sharp corporate debt rise and tightening 11
LGP loans: near-term NPL modest in 2011E/12E; long-term risks hinge on fiscal reform 16
Reduce earnings forecasts on slower balance sheet growth/higher credit costs 24
Two key reasons for our earnings estimate reductions 24
12-month target prices reduced for A/H share banks by an average of 14%/16% 29
New risk weighting: reducing long-term ROE assumptions 29
BoCom (3328.HK, Sell): downgrade on low CAR, high earning risks 32
SPDB (600000.SS, Sell): downgrade on interbank exposure and LGP 34
CNCB (0998.HK, Buy): off CL due to higher earning sensitivity 36