Julian_Zhu_Steven_Tao_Yong_Han-CHINA：METALS_&_MINING：DEMAND_CONCERNS_OVERDONE.pdf
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Table of contents
Key stock ideas; rating changes 3
Current valuations suggest hard landing in 4Q11/2012 5
Significant earnings revisions 6
Rating and target price changes 8
Cement: Recent correction suggest hard landing in 4Q11/FY12 11
Steel: a good near term trading opportunity 14
Metals: restocking to drive metal prices near term; Chalco-H to Buy 20
Coal: Rising costs and consolidations to support coal prices 26
Chalco (2600.HK): Weak 1H priced in; upgrade to Buy 31
Angang (0347.HK): Margins low but improving; upgrade to Neutral 33
Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK, CL-Buy): Good entry level after correction 36
China Coal (1898.HK): Stronger volume growth; upgrade to Neutral 38
Hidili (1393.HK): Lower volume and higher cost; down to Neutral 42
China Moly (3993.HK): Cut Moly price on S/D outlook; down to Sell 45
Yanzhou (1171.HK): Neutral on valuation, but expect some upside 48
Baosteel(600019.SS):Strong rebound in 4Q expected; add to CL-Buy 51