译文:
美媒称奥巴马不应在演讲中避谈中国
2011年08月08日16:02 环球时报
美国《福布斯》杂志7月7日文章,原题:奥巴马不能说的一个词“中国”
“无疑这是喧嚣嘈杂的一年。”这是奥巴马总统上周五在华盛顿海军工厂发表的关美国经济的演讲的开篇之词,“我们经历了阿拉伯世界动荡给石油与天然气价格带来的影响,日本地震和海啸给供应链带来的影响,以及欧洲经济的极端不确定性所带来的影响。近期全球市场走势又出现颠簸。”
的确,他提到的每件事都阻挠美国经济增长,但所有问题都只是边缘化和暂时的。如果我们想就这个问题展开一场有意义的对话,奥巴马必须要说的一个词是:中国。
不管从哪方面讲中国都是至关重要的。如同上世纪80年代的日本,过去20年中国的崛起是非凡的。它对于美国的影响,不管是好是坏,都是巨大的,奥巴马在演讲中罗列拖滞美国经济增长因素时候,有义务对美国民众谈一下中国。
北京倒是经常谈论美国。一周多之前,北京曾尝试用渐趋激烈的言辞动摇美元地位。7月底中国官方媒体新华社曾对华盛顿发起猛烈攻击。日前标准普尔将美国信用评级下调之后,新华社又立即刊文呼吁,国际社会应监督华盛顿的印钞行为。文章建议推出新的国际储备货币替代美元,以避免世界因为某个国家产生重大金融灾难。文章还说,作为美国最大债主,中国完全有权要求美国正视债务问题,保证中国货币资产的安全。
毫无疑问美国必须减少债务持有量,但是北京令我们很难进行必要的调整。中国一直保持着“掠夺性”的经济政策,希望从美国开放的经济中获得利益。所以中国ZF将人民币币值固定在一个较低的水平,旨在刺激中国出口并阻碍进口。
这些政策实施的结果是中美之间一直有较大的贸易顺差。去年中美顺差达到2731亿美元,这是美国与所有国家间曾出现过的最大的逆差数字。
我们完全有权反制中国。但不幸的是,我们没有这么做,奥巴马没有处理这些结构性问题,他只是提了一项相对无关紧要的问题,例如日本海啸等。同时,奥巴马身边的财政部长也两年连续拒绝将中国列为汇率操纵国。
中国不会改变他们的政策,他们正在积累美元,也因此不得不在海外对这些美元资产进行再投资。他们正通过再投资令美元涌向全球金融市场。中国也借此迫使美元利率保持在一个非常低的水平,这样美国ZF容易去借贷。加之中国不允许人民币自由浮动,美国就被套在了这样一个债务困境中。
中美两国间现在的贸易关系是不可持续的。所以不管怎样它都需要发生改变。我们越早着手解决这个问题,就越可能在目前国际贸易框架内找到一种解决方法。换句话说,如果问题及时解决,我们可以不诉诸贸易保护措施。
由于北京一直不妥协坚持自己的政策,美国需要在国内针对中国问题展开一场对话,且越快越好。 (译者:谭利娅)
原文:
Obama Can’t Say the Word “China”
Aug. 7 2011
By GORDON G. CHANG
“There is no doubt this has been a tumultuous year,” said President Obama on Friday as he began his speech at the Washington Navy Yard by talking about the American economy. “We’ve weathered the Arab Spring’s effect on oil and gas prices, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami’s effect on supply chains, the extraordinary economic uncertainty in Europe. And recently, markets around the globe have taken a bumpy ride.”
Each of the events he mentioned lowered growth in America, yet all of them were marginal and temporary. If we want to start a meaningful conversation on the topic, there is one word he needs to utter: “China.”
China, whatever you think about it, is consequential. Like Japan in the 1980s, its rise in the last two decades has been phenomenal. Its effect on America, for good or ill, has been huge, and Obama, once he started listing factors on Friday, was under an obligation to the American people to have mentioned it.
Beijing, for its part, has no trouble mentioning America. For more than a week it has been trying to undermine the dollar with increasingly harsh comments. At the end of July, the official Xinhua News Agency issued a blistering attack on Washington. Yesterday, immediately following Standard & Poor’s downgrading of the U.S. credit rating, Xinhua followed up by calling for international supervision over Washington’s printing of dollars. The official propaganda organ also suggested consideration of a new international reserve currency to replace the greenback “to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country.”
Xinhua also had this to say: “China, the largest creditor of the world’s sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China’s dollar assets.”
There’s no question the United States must reduce its debt load, but at the same time it is issuing its demands, Beijing is making it hard for us to implement necessary adjustments. China, after all, maintains predatory policies designed to take advantage of America’s open economy. So, for instance, the Chinese central government fixes the value of the renminbi at an artificially low level to stimulate Chinese exports and impede imports. It has also been systemically violating its World Trade Organization obligations, especially by blocking imports.
The result of these policies is that China has persistently run large merchandise-trade surpluses against the United States. Last year, for instance, that surplus amounted to $273.1 billion, the largest deficit the U.S. has ever had with any country.
Washington has, for years, been trying to get Beijing to permit more balanced trade and stop buying dollar-denominated obligations, but Chinese officials have refused to take good advice. As a result, their country has become more dependent on the American market. In 2008, 90.1% of China’s overall trade surplus related to sales to the United States. Last year, that number had increased to a simply unbelievable 149.2%.
So China has insisted on accumulating dollars as a direct result of government policies. Apart from violations of their trading obligations, the Chinese have a right to maintain mercantilist practices. Yet we have every right to counter them.
We are not countering them, unfortunately. Instead of dealing with these structural issues, President Obama talks about relatively unimportant ones, like the Japanese tsunami. At the same time, his Treasury Secretary, following in the footsteps of his predecessors, has refused to cite China for currency manipulation in his twice-yearly congressionally mandated reports even though that country clearly meets the statutory definition of a manipulator.
The Chinese will not change their policies, so they are accumulating dollars and therefore forced to reinvest them offshore. That reinvestment is flooding global financial markets with greenbacks. By flooding the world with them, Chinese officials are keeping dollar interest rates abnormally low and therefore making it too easy for the U.S. government to borrow. The U.S., therefore, would not be in such a debt fix if Beijing had allowed the renminbi to float and honored its trade promises, thereby allowing a more balanced trade between the two nations.
The current trading relationship between China and the United States is unsustainable, so one way or another it has to change. The sooner we deal with this, the more likely we will find a solution within the context of the existing international trading framework. In other words, there is a greater likelihood we will adopt a solution without resort to protectionist measures if this matter is resolved soon.
Because Beijing intransigently maintains its policies, America needs an honest national conversation about China—and fast.