Currency pegs

固定汇率制度

Poor dollar standard

糟糕的美元本位制

Has the downgrade shaken loyalty to the greenback?

信用评级下降动摇了各国对美钞的信赖么？

Aug 13th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

“THE United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that,” said Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, after Standard & Poor’s cut America’s credit rating. Whenever this point is made, people usually respond by invoking Zimbabwe. As the hapless African republic demonstrated, there is a limit to how much money a government can print before its economy plunges into hyperinflation.

在标准普尔降低了美国的信用评级后,前美联储主席艾伦•格林斯潘说:“美国能还清任何欠债,因为我们能印钱去还钱。”不管这个评级是什么时候出来的，人们总是会提起津巴布韦。就像这个倒霉的非洲共和国实际证明的那样，在一个ZF陷入恶性通货膨之前总有一个发行货币的最高限度。

But Zimbabwe no longer has hyperinflation. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist, inflation will average only 5.5% this year. How did it achieve this miracle? By adopting the American dollar as its principal currency. America may have lost its triple-A rating, but the dollars it issues will “remain the key international reserve currency under any plausible scenario,” says John Chambers of Standard & Poor’s.

但是津巴布韦已近不再恶性通货膨胀。根据《经济学家》姊妹公司“经济学家智囊团”分析，今年津巴布韦的通胀率平均仅为5.5%。它是怎样实现这个奇迹的呢？津巴布韦就是把美元作为了主要货币。美国尽管失去了三A评级，但它发行的美元“在未来任何一个可能存在的情况下仍将是主要的国际储备货币，”标准普尔的（常务董事）约翰•钱伯斯说。

Zimbabwe is one of 66 countries beside America itself that, by the IMF’s last count, either adopt the dollar as legal tender, peg their currency to it or manage their exchange rate against it. Its only present rival, the euro, has a much smaller circle of influence, counting 25 devotees, beyond the 17 members of the euro zone itself (see chart).

在国际货币基金组织最近统计中，津巴布韦是除美国自身外采用美元作为其法定货币，对美元固定汇率制度或是控制本国货币对美元汇率基本稳定的66个国家之一。美元唯一现存对手欧元影响圈更小。欧元除了在欧元区的17个成员国外，统计中只有25个国家把欧元作为流通货币。（见图表）

The 66 members of the dollar block have a collective GDP of almost $9 trillion, or about 14% of the world economy. The list includes some minnows like St Kitts and Nevis, some populous countries like Bangladesh and some middle-ranking economic powers like Saudi Arabia. The group comprises allies such as Qatar, and rebels such as Venezuela, which expresses disdain for American imperialism even as it surrenders its monetary sovereignty to America’s central bank.

这66个美元区国家集体GDP将近9万亿美元，约占世界经济比重的14%。这些国家包括了很多小国，比如圣基茨岛和尼维斯，还包括了一些人口稠密的国家，比如孟加拉国，还有一些中等经济实力的国家，如沙特阿拉伯。这些国家有美国的同盟国，如卡塔尔，也有敌对国如委内瑞拉。尽管委内瑞拉不屑于美国帝国主义，它还是把国家的金融主权交到了美国中央银行的手中。

Alas, all is not well in the dollar block. Last year, inflation averaged 5.6% across its members (without weighting for GDP). This year it will probably rise to almost 8%.

奈何，所有美元区所处情况都不佳。去年，美元区平均通货率达到5.6%（未考虑GDP对通胀率的影响）。今年的通货膨胀率很可能要上升至8%。

The biggest member of the dollar block by far is China, which keeps tight tabs on the yuan’s movements against the greenback. It has aspirations to create its own reserve currency. Many countries already keep an eye on the yuan because they cannot afford to lose competitiveness against a formidable exporter. An analysis by three economists at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in Delhi shows that the yuan already has a discernible influence on as many as 33 currencies.

迄今为止中国是美国最大的债权国，并且保持人民币对美元汇率基本稳定的政策。中国也有渴望让人民币成为国际储备货币。由于承担不起对一个强大的出口国竞争力的下降，很多国家已近开始关注人民币。一份由德里的国家公共财政和政策研究所的三位经济学家的分析报告表明人民币已经对多达33种货币有明显的影响。

One economy sandwiched between the dollar block and a potential yuan block is Hong Kong. Its dollar peg, backed by a currency board, made perfect sense when the yuan was also tied to the greenback. But as the yuan parts company with the dollar, Hong Kong feels pulled in two directions. Some have called for the yuan to be recognised as legal tender alongside the Hong Kong dollar. But Hong Kong officials tend to keep quiet about the whole issue. They fret that to discuss alternatives to the dollar peg is to undermine confidence in it. The link to the dollar has “served Hong Kong very well as the anchor for monetary and financial stability since 1983,” said Norman Chan, head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, after the S&P downgrade.

香港是一个夹在美元区和潜在人民币区的经济体。当人民币也盯紧美元时，由货币发行局支持的港元货币紧盯政策相得益彰。但是随着人民币对美元汇率的变动，香港便感觉被带向了一个二选一的岔道口。一些人呼吁将人民币同港币一样作为法定货币。但是香港官员对此事还是保持缄默。他们担心讨论港币替代货币会破坏对港币的信心。自标普下调美国主权信贷评级后，香港金管局总裁陈德霖说：“香港的联系汇率制度自1983年推出以来一直颇具成效，是确保香港货币和金融稳定的基石。”

That loyalty to the dollar cannot be assumed, even in the places where it is most deserved. On August 10th Newsday, a Zimbabwean newspaper, wondered whether it was time for Zimbabwe to “ditch” the dollar, lest it import America’s macroeconomic recklessness. Some think the South African rand would provide a better alternative. The dollar remains the world’s key currency, but it cannot be a good sign that even some Zimbabweans are now considering alternatives.

即便是在美元最受欢迎的地区，也不能说完全信任美元。在8月10日的纽约时报上说，一个津巴布韦的报纸上有文章谈到是否到了津巴布韦“丢弃”美元的时候了，生怕它受到美国宏观经济鲁莽举动的影响。一些人认为南非兰特的货币将是一个更好的选择。尽管美元仍保持着世界货币的地位，但甚至津巴布韦都在考虑替换其他货币，这不是一个好的迹象。