INTRODUCTION
With just three months to go before 2023’s books close, recession
bloodhounds are still sniffing for the scent of the much-expected Fed
induced severe economic slowdown. We’ve heard much howling, but
thankfully, recession predictions of negative growth in this year’s lat
ter half have so far proved wrong. The outlook turned more optimistic
when the Commerce Department’s first-quarter estimate of 1.3 per
cent real GDP growth was revised upward significantly in June to 2.0
percent.1 Then, in late July, the department’s first estimate for 2023’s
second-quarter real GDP growth came in at a healthy 2.4 percent.2 This
figure was then revised downward to 2.0 percent on August 30.3 There’s
not a sniff of recession in those numbers.