Top News_20110921 AM Part1

songfang17

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收藏 2011-09-21

1. FED

1) U.S. Republicans Urge Bernanke to Refrain From Further Stimulus

Republican lawmakers urged Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to refrain from additional monetary easing to avoid “further harm” to the U.S. economy, saying Americans have reason to be “skeptical” of his plans.

A Democrat from New York, in a statement today called the letter “a heavyhanded attempt to meddle in the Fed’s independent stewardship of monetary policy” and said it should be “ignored by Chairman Bernanke and the Fed’s policy makers.”

Bernanke has said the Fed has more tools available to stimulate the economy as risks to the U.S. recovery rise and unprecedented easing falls short of fulfilling the Fed’s mandate for full employment.

2) The Twist and Shout Should Be the Fed’s Next Maneuver: View

Markets today are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce Operation Twist, a financial maneuver aimed at rescuing the U.S. recovery.

The idea is to flip the maturities of the Fed’s $1.65 trillion bond portfolio by selling short-term Treasuries and buying longer-term ones. The move would aim to bend down the interest rates charged on home mortgages, car loans and other big-ticket items in the hope of inducing more consumer borrowing and spending, and greater business investment. The Fed may also lower the interest rate it pays banks on the reserves they keep at the central bank, encouraging them to lend rather than hoard the money.

Unfortunately, the twist probably won’t have much effect. The last time the Fed tried something similar -- in 1961, when “The Twist” was actually atop the hit parade -- it managed to lower long-term rates by a mere 0.15 percentage point, economists estimate. In a 2004 paper, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke himself pooh-poohed the move. Now, with unemployment high, many households still deep in debt and with mortgages tough to get, such a small step is unlikely to generate much spending.

So how can Bernanke make a difference? More aggressive action is a tough sell, given the need to navigate between the minority, but very vocal, camp of Fed policy makers who worry about inflation, and the majority -- including him -- who fear a double-dip recession.

2. Euro zone Crises

1) Greece Makes ‘Good Progress’ in Talks to Get Loan Payment

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos made “good progress” in a second round of talks with the European Union and International Monetary Fund aimed at staving off default, the EU said.

Staying in the euro area is an “irreversible and fundamental national choice,” Venizelos said in a statement yesterday. “We acknowledge that our fiscal data and economic structures are a problem for the euro area, which we are determined to tackle once and for all.”

The EU comments suggest the next payment for Greece is likely to be released next month as Prime Minister George Papandreou counters investor doubts that he can avoid default.

2) Italy’s Tremonti to Propose New Reforms to Boost Economy: FT

Italy’s Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti is planning new measures aimed at boosting Italy’s economy following the country’s credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, FT reports, cites unnamed officials.

The proposals would start with a decree by the end of this month offering the private sector incentives to invest in infrastructure and broadband internet projects, the officials say, according to FT. The projects include building an 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) highway from Rome to Venice along the Adriatic coast and other initiatives aimed at enabling more state asset sales, FT says.

3) Barroso Says Euro Bonds Should Be Preserved as Debt Plan Option

Policy makers battling a European debt crisis shouldn’t rule out issuing joint euro-area bonds and must develop integration tools to make that possible, even if German opposition means it can’t be done immediately, European Commission President Jose Barroso said.

The idea of bonds sold jointly by the euro area’s 17 nations remains alive because unprecedented bailouts by governments and the European Central Bank have failed to stamp out debt concerns that began in Greece almost two years ago and rattled markets. Barroso said the commission, the European Union’s executive branch, would present euro bond options “very soon,” reiterating a previously stated time frame.

4) Chanos Says Europe Stress Tests a ‘Joke,’ Would Short Sell Banks

Jim Chanos, the short seller who runs hedge fund Kynikos Associates LP, said July’s stress tests on European banks were a “joke” and that he’d bet against those lenders if regulators didn’t prohibit it.

“This is so built into the structure of the European economic system that starting down this austerity path, as Greece has found out and Ireland has found out, is not going to increase growth, it’s going to decrease growth,” said Chanos.

Chanos said he sold shares of the European banks short before regulators introduced and extended bans on short-selling in European equity markets last month to stem volatility.

5) Debt Crisis Infects Companies via Bank Loan Costs: Euro Credit

Banks in Spain and Italy are curbing loans and charging customers more as aftershocks from the sovereign debt crisis drive their own borrowing cost higher.

Spanish and Italian government bond yields surged to euro-era records this quarter as Greece struggled to avoid default, driving the cost of insuring against nonpayment by the region’s banks to a record and making it harder for them to sell bonds. As a result, banks such as Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, are passing higher funding costs on to their customers.

3. Central Banks

1) Norway May Keep Rates Unchanged on Euro Crisis, Krone Strength

Norway’s central bank will probably keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting as it guards against Europe’s deepening debt crisis and protects exporters from krone gains.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday cut its growth forecast for the euro area this year to 1.6 percent from a June estimate of 2 percent. Norway will grow 1.7 percent this year, the Washington-based lender predicts.

Analyst Comment: Significantly weaker growth prospects abroad, lower inflation than expected and higher unemployment justify more caution in monetary policy.

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bengdi1986

2011-10-5 20:56:37

2) Asia May Use Record Reserves to Slow Inflation: Chart of the Day

“With reserves at historic highs in Asia, there is no question that central banks have the ability to support their currencies,” Wai Ho Leong, a Singapore-based senior regional economist at Barclays, said in an interview yesterday. “We could start to see more aggressive action to limit won losses. Korea, Singapore and India are where the threshold of tolerance may be crossed if imported inflation starts to rise.

South Korean Finance Minister Bahk Jae Wan said yesterday that declines in the won will add to inflationary pressure.

Analyst Comment: There is speculation in the market that the Korean government intervened to curb the won’s decline as it fell below 1,150 per dollar.

It looks like the Reserve Bank of India is in the market.

4. ECO

1) Housing Starts in U.S. Dropped More Than Forecast in August

Analyst Comment: Housing starts dropped 5 percent to a three-month low 571,000 annual rate, indicating builders began work on fewer homes than forecast in August, showing an industry that’s languishing more than two years into the U.S. economic recovery.

Foreclosures, declining prices and a lack of employment are hindering construction and holding back an industry that’s typically helped spark economic rebounds from past recessions. Tighter lending standards and reductions in homeowner equity mean fewer buyers are able to take advantage of mortgage rates at record lows.

Concern over housing and this year’s growth slowdown may prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to propose new measures to bolster the economy when they conclude their two-day meeting tomorrow.

Analyst Comment: Conditions aren’t getting much worse, but there’s also no sign of a real turnaround. August starts may have been put off because of bad weather. Permits rose and that might be a sign there’s hope.

2) Weak U.S. Leads IMF to Cut Canada’s Economic Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund cut Canada’s economic growth forecast today, citing weaker U.S. demand and slower government spending, and saying Finance Minister Jim Flaherty can afford to offer new stimulus if needed to sustain the recovery.

The growth forecast for this year was reduced to 2.1 percent from a June prediction of 2.9 percent. The expansion will slow further to 1.9 percent next year, a reduction from the June forecast of 2.6 percent.

“In Canada, downdrafts from its southern neighbor will be offset in part by relatively healthy economic fundamentals and still supportive commodity prices.” “For Canada, which is in a sounder fiscal and financial position than the United States, ongoing fiscal tightening can continue, but there is policy room to pause if downside risks to growth keep rising,” the IMF report said.

3) IMF Cuts East European Growth Forecast on Euro Contagion Threat

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for central and eastern Europe for this year and next as the global recovery runs out of steam and the deepening euro-area debt crisis threatens the region.

Eastern Europe’s export-led recovery from its worst slump since the end of communism is being jeopardized by the threat of a new recession in the U.S. and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. The region depends on export demand from euro-area nations to drive its growth and about three-quarters of its banks are owned by foreign, mainly west European lenders.

Analyst Comment: An escalation of sovereign debt and financial sector troubles to the core euro area would undermine growth in emerging Europe, given tight financial and economic linkages. Should the periphery’s debt crisis continue to propagate to core euro-area economies, there could be significant disruption to global financial stability.

4) Australia’s Westpac Leading Index Increased 0.5% in July

An Australian index of leading economic indicators increased in July as stronger corporate profits offset a decline in consumer confidence.

Analyst Comment: The sharp turnaround in growth momentum in the second quarter explains all of this improvement.

Inflation risks have eased, labor markets are softening, credit growth and housing markets are weak, and confidence, amongst both consumers and businesses, has tumbled. We believe that the case is there now for a rate cut.

5) Japan Exports Gain Less Than Forecast on Waning World Demand

Japan’s exports increased less than expected as shipments of electronic parts fell, an indication that slowing growth abroad and a rising yen may weigh on the economy’s recovery.

Standard & Poor’s last week cut its Japan GDP forecast to close to zero from its pre-quake estimate of 1.3 percent, citing a “less robust” rebound from the disaster than it expected.

Analyst Comment: Exports have been recovering since the earthquake, but they are losing momentum. A recession for Japan is still unlikely but decelerating exports imply any recovery will be modest.

6) South Korea’s Unemployment Rate Falls to 3-Year Low

South Korea’s unemployment rate fell to a three-year low as the economy’s expansion boosted hiring in the service sectors.

Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo kept borrowing costs unchanged for a third month on Sept. 8, saying the bank may not be able to resume rate increases until “external” factors such as Europe’s debt crisis look to be under control.

Analyst Comment: The jobless rate is low and supportive for consumption. I think they are done with the rate tightening cycle. But the recent drop in the won may keep them vigilant.

5. FRX

1) Aussie Gains as RBA Minutes Indicate No Talk of Lowering Rates

The Australian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia said it’s well positioned to respond to economic risks, damping speculation the central bank will cut interest rates this year.

The minutes released by the RBA in Sydney showed that Members considered that the current setting of monetary policy left the board well placed to respond to evolving global and domestic economic conditions.

Analyst Comment: Going into the RBA minutes last night, people had anticipated the central bank to turn a little more dovish. The fact that they didn’t caused a lot of people to reverse their short Aussie dollar positions.

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