这篇也该有助于白虎理解外汇市场吧，下载好苦，适当收费

Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries

作者分别在世界银行和MIT工作

Abstract: What is the current account response to a transitory income shock? This model predicts that favorable income shocks lead to current account deficits in debtor countries and current account surpluses in creditor countries. Kraay and Ventura reexamine a classic question in international economics: What is the current account response to a transitory income shock such as a temporary improvement in the terms of trade, a transfer from abroad, or unusually high production? To answer this question, they construct a world equilibrium model in which productivity varies across countries and international borrowing and lending take place to exploit good investment opportunities. Despite its conventional ingredients, the model generates the novel prediction that favorable income shocks lead to current account deficits in debtor countries and current account surpluses in creditor countries. Evidence from thirteen OECD countries broadly supports this theoretical prediction.