大摩中国农业策略研究报告（65页）


An escalating proportion of China’s household income is being spent on food. As China’s per-capital GDP continues to climb, so has its spending on more—and higher-quality—food. The dramatic growth in demand for meat (up 15% in the last three years alone), and, in turn, for livestock feed, has strained China’s self-sufficiency and created an ever-widening consumption-production gap in the country’s grain complex.
Constraints on local production mean increased demand for agricultural products from around the globe. Today, China feeds one-fifth of the world’s population with only 6% of the world’s fresh water and 0.08 hectares of arable land per capita (less than half the global average). We believe that these constraints will force China, already the world’s largest importer of soybeans, to increase imports of other soft commodities from the US and Latin America. We also expect China to become a structural importer of corn in the coming years, a view supported by three consecutive years of net import growth.
Positive outlook for global agribusiness: China demand for global grains will help sustain prices of agricultural commodities. Our team of 15 global analysts have selected nine companies in this sector best positioned to benefit from China’s emergence in the global agribusiness markets. They are agricultural products processor China-Agri Industries; meat producer Brasil Foods SA; diversified farmer Adecoagro; sugarcane and starch producer Tereos Internacional; soybean exporter ADM; and fertilizer companies ChinaBlue Chemical, Soquimich,CF Industries, and Potash Corp