成果名称 以产业结构战略性调整加快推动发展方式转变

立项时间  2010年4月27日         

项目负责人    (略) 　

【内容提要】

    2008年金融危机以来，世界经济进入深度调整，山东采取有力措施保增长、扩内需、调结构、惠民生。“十二五”时期是山东经济发展的关键时期，转方式、调结构将成为推动未来经济发展的根本动力，特别是产业结构调整将随着经济发展不断深化。本文在对产业结构演变理论进行梳理的基础上，运用山东省国民经济核算资料及投入产出资料，对改革开放以来山东产业结构调整演变规律和产业结构特点进行了系统总结与评价，对事关山东发展的一些重要产业发展情况进行了点评。本文重点内容之一是运用计量经济模型和SDA模型对山东产业结构与经济增长的关系进行定量分析，得到一些重要参数。之二是运用产业经济理论和投入产出方法首次对山东产业结构的梯度层次进行了划分，得到山东产业序列的梯次分布。之三是结合本文有关研究结论和山东既有的政策重点提出了“十二五”时期山东实施产业结构调整需要进行的战略性产业选择。

【关 键 词】产业结构  战略产业  投入产出  产业关联

World economic readjusted deeply since the financial crisis arised in 2008, Shangdong Provience also like else of China, taken forcefully measures to garantee economic growth, stimulate domestic demand, adjust industrial structure and benefit the people's livelihood. The 12th Five-Year Development period is a key stage to Shandong Provience for economic advancement, adjustment of solution and structure will be the motive power for promoting economy development in the near future, especially industrial restructuring which would deepening as economic developing. In this article, industrial structure evolution theory is refreshed firstly, then national economic accounting information together with input/output materials are employed to summrize and assess Shandong Provience’s industrial structure adjustment pattern and industrial structure characteristics since the reform and opening-up, and to comment on status of some industry which are improtant to Shangdong Provience. First point of this artical is numerial study on relationship of industrial structure visa economic growth with metrological economics model and SDA model, and come up with some key parameters; Second point is initiate industrial structue gradient layout defination for Shandong Provience, based on industrial economics theory and input/output anlysis. The third point is integate related studies and policy highlights, bring up statigic options for Shandong Provience industial strucrture adjustment during the period of 12th Five-Year Development.