题目：山东经济增长模型与要素分析
——基于现代经济增长理论的视角

来源：工作论文

作者：《经济增长模型与要素分析》课题组

【内容提要】

本文以现代经济增长理论的视角，通过建立计量经济学模型分析各要素对经济增长的贡献。研究思路：首先对经济增长有关文献进行了梳理，在比较综合不同的理论观点后选定现代经济增长理论作为分析框架。其次是以四个重要模型即新古典增长模型（Solow-Swan）、知识驱动内生增长模型（Romer）、人力资本模型(Lucas-Uzawa)和公共支出模型(Barro-Sala·I·Martin)作为模型创建的出发点，按照计量经济学建模规范逐一进行分析检验。最后确定研究山东经济增长应当以Romer模型为分析重点。数据评估：对所使用数据序列逐一进行了分析、调整和平稳性检验，以保证模型的有效性与结论的可靠性。主要结论：除具有资本推动这一主要特征之外，山东城市化进程对经济增长的贡献也比较突出；现阶段全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献与人们的期待并不相符；国际化作为发展外向型经济的重要目标还没有起到应有的作用。

【关 键 词】 山东 增长模型 要素分析

【Abstract】

The author set a econometrics model that based on economic growth theory to analyze the distribution of main factors to the economic growth of Shandong Province. Analysis Thread: Before deciding to choose Modern Economic Growth Theory as the main analyzing frame, the author have reviewed a few of classic related documents and compared several economic theories to get their similarity and differentiation. Then four econometrics models are set ,which separately base on Solow-Swan growth model, David-Romer growth model, Lucas-Uzawa growth model and Barro-Sala·I·Martin growth model, in order to demonstrate the influence of the main factors to the economic growth of Shandong Province. To get the best one out of four models, each is proof-tested and the David-Romer growth model is found of best appliance to the Shandong Province economy. Quantitative Analysis: In order to get effective and authentic conclusion, proof test , stationarity tests and necessary adjustment are all applied to the primary data. Main Conclusion: Both capital accumulation anddevelopment of urbanization impulse the economy; total factor productivity does not played such an important role to economy as most people think; the potential effect of internationalization should be wakened to accelerate the export-oriented economy.

【Key Words】 Shandong province; growth model; factor analysis