| 4. Will China suffer a trade deficit in 2012?
I don't think there is any possibility that China will see a trade deficit in 2012, or even for a few years. Although the year-on-year growth for China's exports has been on the decline during the past few months and the trend is expected to continue, we should not be too pessimistic about the prospects for China's exports. Demand from developed nations including the United States and European Union is still there, although the growth is not robust. And China has been diversifying its markets for exports, with shipments to countries including Brazil, Russia and South Africa rising fast during the past year. On the other hand, China's imports are not as strong as expected as the nation's economy slows down.
I expect double-digit exports growth for China will be sustained in 2012 and the nation's surplus will narrow to around $120 billion next year. ----- Huo Jianguo, director of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce 5. Will China's currency become more internationalized?
The internationalization of the yuan can help China adjust the US dollar-based and passive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. It can also greatly enhance China's role in international trade and investment.Meanwhile, the lift to the yuan's global profile will help upgrade China's exports and make it easy for China to adopt balanced measures to reduce trade surpluses and increase imports. The anticipation of the yuan's appreciation will help boost China's purchasing power of energy and raw material products and strengthen national and corporate competitiveness.The internationalization of the yuan will also help boost domestic demand and help shift the growth model from being export-driven to consumption-driven. ----- Shen Jianguang, chief economist for China with Mizuho Securities |