China Economics
Subsiding Inflation Pressures
Open the Door to Ease Policy
November’s datapack featured subsiding inflation
pressures and moderating growth momentum:
China’s November inflation prints – both CPI and PPI –
have surprised on the downside. The lower-than-
expected readings are mainly a function of carryover
effect and the decline on a sequential basis. Indeed, the
downward pressures from food components and raw
materials prices, together with dampening effect from
aggregate demand moderation, have become the main
forces keeping down the sequential changes.
China Economics
November Trade Better Than
Expected but Caution Ahead

November trade growth beat our above-consensus
expectations:   Exports growth moderated to +13.8%
YoY in November (vs. +15.9% YoY in October), largely
in line with our forecast (+13% YoY), while beating
consensus expectations (+10.9% YoY) by a wide
margin. Imports growth came in much stronger than
expected as well, at +22.1% YoY in November (we
expected +19% YoY; consensus: +18.8% YoY). The
relatively more resilient growth in imports continues to
narrow the trade surplus, which decreased to US$14.5
bn in November from US$17 bn in October.
China Economics
November Trade Better Than
Expected but Caution Ahead