花旗—中国经济深度观察：上海会被边缘化吗？

(４４页)　　　２００６年１０月底　　.pdf

Contents

Executive Summary 3
Citigroup Forecasts 4
Focus: The Marginalization of Shanghai? A Debate 6
For the Marginalization Thesis................................................................................................................... 6
Against the Marginalization Thesis............................................................................................................. 9
Market implications ................................................................................................................................. 12
Strait Watch: Limited Impact of Taiwan’s Domestic Political Unrest on Cross-Strait
Relations 14
Limited Impact of Taiwan’s Domestic Political Unrest on Cross-Strait Relations................................... 14
China 16
China: Takeaways from Investor Trip 17
Takeaways from an Investor Trip ............................................................................................................. 17
China in Pictures...................................................................................................................................... 21
Hong Kong 22
Hong Kong: Steady Economic Growth after a Slowdown in 2Q06 23
Steady Economic Growth after a Slowdown in 2Q06 .............................................................................. 23
Hong Kong in Pictures............................................................................................................................. 27
Taiwan 28
Assessing Taiwan’s Vulnerability to a US Slowdown 29
Taiwan Remains Vulnerable to a US Slowdown ......................................................................................... 29
Taiwan in Pictures ................................................................................................................................... 34
Tracking Economic Trends 35
Global Forecasts 40