说明： 本文已被《管理世界》接受，正式发表要等到明年，我是通讯作者，欢迎大家批评指正，comments are welcome！

1 论文标题
企业组织资本对中国宏观经济波动的影响
Organizational Capital and Chinese Business Cycle

2 作者信息
许志伟（通讯作者），香港科技大学经济系
E-mail: xuzhiwei09@gmail.com

吴化斌，上海财经大学高等研究院
E-mail：wu.huabin@sufe.edu.cn

3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
《管理世界》已接受

4 摘要
摘要：组织资本作为一种产生于生产过程并影响边际生产率的无形资本，不仅直接影响企业的经济绩效，也具有非常重要的宏观含义。本文将企业组织资本引入中国的总量生产函数，并运用贝叶斯一般均衡的方法进行估计。结果表明，含和不含组织资本的模型具有统计上的差异，前者更好地解释了中国数据。同时，数值模拟显示：（1）忽略企业的组织资本会显著高估全要素生产率对于总产出函数中性技术波动的测度；（2）组织资本引入了内在的传导机制，可以很好地解释中国总产出序列的持久性；（3）影响组织资本积累的专有技术冲击对于经济波动具有显著的影响，该冲击解释了产出总波动的25%左右。综上所述，我们认为微观层面的企业组织资本对于宏观经济的研究具有不可忽视的作用。
关键词：组织资本   中国经济波动   干中学模型  贝叶斯一般均衡方法
JEL分类号：E24  E32  L2

Abstract：Organizational Capital (OC) as an intangible asset originates from the firm's production process. In addition to its direct effect on the marginal productivity, OC also plays an important role in the aggregate level. In this paper, we incorporate OC as an input into Chinese aggregate production function. Based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we conduct the estimation procedure through Bayesian approach. We find that the model with OC statistically differs with the traditional RBC model, and the former explains Chinese data much better. Moreover, our simulation results show that: (1) Ignoring OC might significantly overstate the role of TFP as a proxy to the technology shock in business cycle frequency; (2) OC introduces an internal propagation mechanism, which endues our model more explanatory power; (3) The OC specification shock has significant impact on the business cycle that contributes around 25% of the total volatility.
Keywords: Organizational Capital, Chinese Business Cycle, Learning-by-doing Model,  Bayesian DSGE Approach