Tough 1Q a good window to accumulate 4
We recommend sector pair trades 5
Significant earnings revisions 10
Rating and target price changes 13
Cement: Gain after pain in 1Q12; Buy national champions 22
Coal: Contract likely to outperform spot; Buy China Coal / Shenhua 29
Mongolia coal: difficult time for ramping up; Buy Winsway 35
Steel: ASPs/costs and margins likely to rebalance at lower level 36
Metals: Copper has best fundamentals; but ali best risk reward 41
CR Cement (1313.HK): From regional to national; initiate with Buy 44
Shanshui (0691.HK): Earnings growth slowing; initiate with Neutral 51
WCC (2233.HK): Lost in transformation; initiate with Sell 57
BBMG (2009.HK): To Neutral on weakening property sales/prices 65
China Coal (1898.HK): U/G to Buy on higher contract prices/volume 70
Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK): Most vulnerable to spot price cap; Sell 75
Hidili (1393.HK): Volume likely to miss again; D/G to Sell 79
MMC (0975.HK, Buy): Lower earnings but still Buy 82
Chalco (2600.HK): Off CL, D/G to Neutral on higher power tariffs 84
Appendix 1: Cement databank 103
Appendix 2: Coal databank 105
Appendix 3: Steel databank 107
Appendix 4: Metals databank 110
Disclosure Appendix 114