􀂄 The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further since our
October Outlook report, largely due to the worsening picture in Europe.
We have nudged down our forecast for global growth to 3.2% from 3.5%
previously, although we expect a rebound to 4% in 2013.
􀂄 The euro zone remains the epicenter of this story, and we expect a fairly
severe recession in the bloc in the near term. This reflects the combined
effects of fiscal tightening and a tightening of credit conditions. We see
the euro zone economy contracting by 0.5% in 2012. Recovery requires a
stabilization in government debt markets and higher bank capital. A
resolution of the former has so far eluded policymakers, but we expect
they will be able to restore confidence in government finances in the
coming months, and by Q3 we expect growth to return.
􀂄 We are encouraged by the better-than-expected recent performance of
the US economy and are optimistic that this will continue through 2012
and 2013. But in Japan the strong yen and other factors have dampened
exports and investment, and we see the economy shrinking in the
current quarter and the first quarter of 2012. Post-earthquake spending
should pull the economy out of recession by mid-2012.
􀂄 We remain of the view that concern over a “hard landing” in China is
overdone. While growth is slowing due to weaker exports and property
investment, the authorities are relaxing policy and should have sufficient
tools at their disposal to manage the situation. Growth will likely slow
further before improving in Q2 next year.
􀂄 Weakening growth will have a dampening effect on inflation worldwide.
In particular, easing commodity price pressures should take headline
inflation rates down sharply in emerging markets.
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