citigroup 花旗：中国航空业深度研究　　　

Citigroup Global Markets | Equity Research

07.01.03 ２８页　　.pdf　　　Asia Pacific | China

Chinese Airlines　　3 January 2007 | 28 pages
Upgrading on Better Pricing and Government Support

Contents
Embracing a Stronger 2007 3
More Industry Improvement to Be Priced In 4
Favorable Policies Should Lift Airline Stocks 5
Airport Tariff Reform a Possible Short-term Risk 5
Global Airlines Valuations 6
Air China (0753.HK) 8
Buy: The Strong Get Stronger 8
Earnings Forecasts and Assumptions 11
Earnings Forecasts – Outputs 12
China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) 14
Buy: Expecting Strategic Investors and Gov’t Capital Injection 14
Earnings Forecasts and Assumptions 16
Earnings Forecasts – Outputs 17
China Southern Airlines (1055.HK) 19
Buy: State Capital Injection Likely to Send Shares Higher 19
Earnings Forecasts and Assumptions 21
Earnings Forecasts – Outputs 22
Analyst Certification Appendix A-1 24