citigroup 花旗：人民币的升值与失衡

02-Feb-07 7页　　　英文

Macro China：The Rising RMB and Imbalances

􀃊 The fundamental solution for external imbalances may depend on consumption escalation, but currency appreciation is likely the necessary remedy to stabilize the external account. We continue to expect the CNY/USD to rise to 7.33 by year-end with a widened trading band early this year
􀃊 Accelerating currency appreciation will gradually add pressure on export growth. This may not reduce the trade surplus immediately given the difficulty to promote imports
􀃊 Export growth was largely driven by the quantity, not the price, of export goods, suggesting that the rising RMB did not attract larger inflows of speculative funds in 2006