Citigroup-新加坡银行策略 44页 09.28

28 September 2007 44 pages

Singapore Banks Strategy

Robust Revenue Growth Despite US Concerns

Contents
Robust Revenue Growth despite US Concerns 3
Singapore domestic demand growth story 3
Concerns: Hong Kong margins, markets-related revenues 3
P/E cycle charts – bank valuations at 12x-14x 2008E P/E 4
Valuation snapshot – DBS top pick 5
Property Boom-driven Loan Volumes 6
US growth to slow, but no recession 6
US rate cuts to cushion the impact to Singapore GDP 7
Strong domestic demand driving Singapore loan growth 8
Upbeat Singapore property market into 2008E 11
Analyzing the three banks' loan growth strategies 15
Singapore Margins Intact, HK a Concern 18
Limited Singapore short-term rates impact post US Fed cut 18
Singapore net interest margin outlook remains healthy 19
Volume growth to support net interest income expansion 19
Hong Kong Prime-HIBOR squeeze a concern for DBS 21
Other key regional markets could see some margin pressure 23
Markets-related Earnings a Key Swing Factor 26
Markets-related earnings over 20% of total revenues 26
We forecast muted markets-related income growth in 2008E 27
DBS Group markets-related revenue trends 1Q03 – 2Q07 29
OCBC markets-related revenue trends 1Q03 – 2Q07 30
UOB markets-related revenue trends 1Q03 – 2Q07 31
CDOs and ABCP Exposures 32
Limited earnings impact expected 32
Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) outstanding 33
Appendix A-1 40
Analyst Certification 40