Content

Foreword vii

Acknowledgments ix

Overview xi

Abbreviations xxvii

Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy 1

Summary of the medium-term outlook 1

Global growth surged to 3.9 percent in 2006 2

Regional outlooks 6

Financial markets 12

World trade 18

Commodity markets 20

Downside risks predominate 23

Notes 26

References 27

Chapter 2 The Coming Globalization 29

The evidence of globalization 30

The world in 2030—the big picture 36

The four channels of globalization 46

What will happen if growth is slower—or faster—in the next 25 years? 52

Challenges of the coming globalization 58

Notes 61

References 63

Chapter 3 Income Distribution, Inequality, and Those Left Behind 67

The global distribution of income 70

Within-country inequality and poverty reduction 80

Policy implications 89

Notes 94

References 97

Chapter 4 New Pressures in Labor Markets: Integrating Large Emerging

Economies and the Global Sourcing of Services 101

The impact of globalization: the story so far 102

New challenge I—absorbing large emerging economies into the

global market 109

New challenge II—global sourcing of services 120

Policies to confront the labor market challenges of globalization 125

Notes 133

References 136

Chapter 5 Managing the Environmental Risks to Growth 141

The immediate risk of epidemics 143

The medium-term risks to marine fisheries 146

The long-term risk of climate change 149

Conclusions and policy recommendations 160

Notes 163

References 164

Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects 167