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2012-02-08
这个世界并不缺钱,缺的只是钱的分布过度不均匀,兰鸿波(Lidea)认为欧债危机将带来国际政治经济的新突破。就如同当年以牛顿为代表的传统力学理论遇到危机一样,需要一个全新的理论加以突破,于是诞生了相对论、量子理论;类似地,今天的欧债危机、美债危机表明传统的经济学理论(包括自由市场的理论、ZF投资干预的理论,亚当斯密的理论、凯恩思的理论、哈耶克的理论等等)已经难以适应时代的要求了,需要彻底的全新的政治和经济理论的突破才能解决债务危机,我想,这个理论应当有点类似相对论和量子理论,能容纳更多的不确定性和非线性。比如说,传统经济学认为,债一定要以某种方式还,新经济学可能认为,债务具有随机性,在特定的条件下,有些还,有些可不还,就象量子有不确定性一样,借债人必须事先考虑到债务的随机性,并做好承受一定损失的准备。所以,我认为当今的经济学家应当尽快根据此建议设计出新债务模型,这将是一种全新的经济理论,将带来国际政治经济的新突破。
  
  
  This world is not short of money, but lack of just over uneven distribution of money. Lidea think the European debt crisis will bring a new breakthrough in the international political economy. Like the crisis hundred years ago of the traditional Newton mechanics theory, a new theory represented by the theory of relativity, quantum theory was born. Similarly, today's debt crisis in Europe, the U.S. debt crisis are the crisis of the traditional economics theory (including theories of free markets, government intervention by investment, Adam Smith's theory, Cairns theory, Hayek's theory, etc.) has been difficult to adapt to the demands of the times, we need to complete a new political and economic theoretical breakthroughs to solve the debt crisis. I think this theory should be somewhat similar to the theory of relativity and quantum theory, which can hold more uncertainty and nonlinear. For example, in conventional economics, debt must be paied back in some way, but the new economics may think that debt is random, in certain conditions, some will be paied back, some may not. as the quantum uncertainty. Lenders must first take into account the random nature of debt, and make preparations to withstand some loss. So, I think that today's economists should as soon as possible work out a new debt model according to this idea. It will be a new economic theory, and will brings a new breakthrough to international political economy.
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