<P><FONT size=6>DB 德银：钾肥行业报告-俄罗斯</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=6>（20页）    01.15    1.16M   英文 .pdf</FONT></P>
<P>15 January 2007<BR>Double eagle of the Russian<BR>potash industry<BR>Elena Sakhnova, CFA<BR>Research Analyst<BR><BR> </P>
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<P>Uralkali: no surprises from either volumes or prices<BR>Uralkali’s ambitious growth plans were scaled back when one of its three mines<BR>flooded in late October 2006. As a result, the company will only be able to reach<BR>an output of 5.4 mn tonnes in 2008, the same as in 2005, instead of the 0.8 mn<BR>tonne expansion planned by that year. Additional volumes can be derived from<BR>clearing bottlenecks in the ore transportation system. However, this is unlikely to<BR>add more than 200-300,000 tonnes per year and will have only a minor impact on<BR>our valuation.<BR>Nor is pricing likely to bring any positive surprises. Uralkali’s management was<BR>reluctant to comment on Chinese negotiations, and we think that after the<BR>impressive price increase last year, any additional growth on this major potash<BR>market is not likely to be more than $5-10 per tonne. Given the recent flooding,<BR>Uralkali would also be unlikely to compound its problems by entering into another<BR>pricing war and risking a further drop in volumes.</P><BR>