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SJM/Galaxy have the greatest capacity to raise/declare DPS
We expect GGR growth to decelerate to 12% yoy in 2012, with much of the
market growth captured by Sands China’s new Cotai project. Hence, we
expect divergent performance this year and believe the remaining casino
operators (Wynn Macau, MGM China, SJM and MPEL) are likely to record
flat EBITDA growth or modest decline. After years of strong cash flow
generation, the potential for dividend distribution has emerged as a new
theme for Macau’s gaming industry. After analyzing the cash flow profiles
and future capital needs of individual operators, we believe SJM/Galaxy
have the greatest financial strength to raise/start dividend payouts in 2012.