UN 联合国：World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007

（１７７页）　　2.84M大小　　

United Nations　New York, 2007

This report is a joint product of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). It provides an overview of recent global economic performance and short-term prospects for the world economy and of some key global economic policy and development issues. One of its purposes is to serve as a point of reference for discussions on economic,social and related issues taking place in various United Nations entities in 2007.

Contents
Page
Executive summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Explanatory notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
I. Global outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Macroeconomic prospects for the world economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Expected deceleration of world economic growth in 2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
A more volatile international economic environment for developing countries 10
The need for more employment growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Benign inflation outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Uncertainties and downside risks for the global outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Burst of the housing bubble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
The impact of higher oil prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Widening global imbalances. . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
The need for macroeconomic policy coordination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
A new Plaza Agreement?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
The case for policy coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Obstacles to policy coordination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
What can be done? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
II. International trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Trade flows: can the momentum be sustained? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Primary commodity prices and markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Non-oil commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
World oil markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Trade policy developments and trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Doha negotiations: dealing with a complete deadlock. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Aid for Trade: tentative progress in moving the Initiative forward. . . . . . . . . . . 52
III. Financial flows to developing and transition economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Net transfers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Private capital flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Net private capital flows to developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Continuing expansion of foreign direct investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
International financial cooperation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Official development assistance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and other debt-relief measures . . 71
Governance of the global financial system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Quota and voice reform in the International Monetary Fund . . 73
Multilateral surveillance . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

．．．．．．．

．．．．．

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-18 22:54:10编辑过]