GS 高盛：亚太金融行业报告

（34P）01.18 -.pdf

Asia Pacific Financials Fact Sheet

Table of contents

Alpha, beta, CAMELOT and delta: Top picks and underweight ideas 3
Sector stance, P/E, P/B, P/PPOP valuation metrics 3
Our stock coverage ranked by implied total returns 4
Premium paid for growth; PPOP growth versus premium paid for growth 5
CAMELOT target prices and ex-growth bond-equivalent floors 6
CAMELOT-3 target prices (3-stage DDM) and ex-growth bond-equivalent floors 7
Absolute and relative price performance 8
Absolute and relative price performance (continued) 9
Valuations, Goldman Sachs and consensus estimates 10
Valuations, Goldman Sachs and consensus estimates (continued) 11
Factors driving EPS growth: FY2006E 12
Factors driving EPS growth: FY2007E 13
Factors driving EPS growth: FY2008E 14
ROE/ROA DuPont analysis 15
CAMEL fundamentals and market dimensions 16
Banking sector loan, deposit, and macroeconomic data 17
Focus thematics, sector outlook changes 18
China: Banks: Reserve ratio hike has limited negative impact on China banks 18
China: Insurance: China insurance: Premium proxies for the A share market 18
Hong Kong: Banks: Rmb bond issuance in HK: Likely benefits bound to be modest 19
India: Financial Services: Levered play on structural growth; initiating on five
companies 19
South Korea: Banks: Potential reduction in credit card fees most negative for
Shinhan 20
South Korea: Banks: Korean banks: Budgeting for a stable operating environment
in 2007 20
Taiwan: Banks: Cross-strait banking links, issue No. 1: Obstacle removal in sight 21
Taiwan: Banks: More house cleaning; 2H2007 earnings rebound in sight 21
Taiwan: Banks: Bankruptcy of the Chinese Bank: Limited ripple impact on the
sector 22
Focus stock calls, upgrades, downgrades 23
BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) (2388.HK): BOC HK China incorporation via Nanyang
sub: Win-win solution 23
China Life Insurance Company (2628.HK): Still trading above fundamentally
justifiable levels 23
Chinatrust Financial Holdings (2891.TW): One-off items and trading book loss
drive Dec PPOP to negative 23
Chinatrust Financial Holdings (2891.TW): Extra provisions for restructured debt
announced; maintain Neutral 24
Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK): On a roll with beta, alpha and delta; raising to
HK$102 target 24
PICC Property and Casualty (2328.HK): Target price breached, downgrading to
Neutral 25
Singapore Exchange: Riding on new initiatives and higher turnover; raising TP to
S$6.5 26
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SI): Deepening franchise in Indonesia with
proposed acquisition 26
Ping An Insurance Group (2318.HK): Stable business model, volatile stock price 27
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS): 2006 income tax rate higher
than expected; operating results in-line 27
Taishin Financial Holdings (2887.TW): Write down of NPL sale loss in one shot;
another 10% BVPS erosion 28
TISCO Bank (TISC.BK): In-line profit, but long-awaited NIM recovery not yet
in sight 28
Recent publications 29
Asia-Pacific Banking Team 30
Disclosures 30
India Financials: Levered play on structural growth, initiating with positive
stance - by Sampath Kumar 34

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-19 11:40:13编辑过]