HSBC 汇丰：日本股市策略研究

（４０页） 17 January 2007 英文

Slowing global cycle suggests that the Japanese stock market is likely to continue to disappoint in the near term
􀀗 Outperformance may resume in the 2H in anticipation of stronger growth in 2008. Our year-end TOPIX target is 1750 Key factors to watch are M&A and July’s Upper House election

Contents

Investment Strategy 3
Global cycle ominous 3
Themes for 2007 8
Five themes 8
M&A data 10
Economy 14
Softly, softly 14
Politics and policy 17
Upper House election is key 17
Supply and demand 20
Foreign inflow remains key 20
Supply and demand 21
Earnings 23
Strong 1H but slowdown ahead 23
Summary 26
Valuations 27
Expensive, as always 27
Valuations (TOPIX 500 non-financial companies) 29
Sectors 30
Sector views 30
Financials.................................................................30
Defensives................................................................31
HSBC Sector scorecard 33
December 2006 update .............................................33
References 37
Disclosure appendix 38
Disclaimer 39